Baseballs and Redbirds

2003-12-22T06:36:00.000-08:00

Options, Options, Options....

I was reading yesterday on the Stltoday.com Cardinals forum, and someone there posted the ancient axiom, "pitching and defense win championships". Normally I would despise such trite a saying, it makes it's argument under the false auspices of "widsom" - the response to the challenge it presents is easy. However, in the case of the 2003 vs. 2004 St. Louis Cardinals - I believe that this shoe fits, and Walt would do well to wear it.

(My apologies for the above paragraph)

During the Jocketty/LaRussa regime, the Cardinals have consistently finished as one of the top offensive teams in the National League. Last year was no exception. Do Not let it be said that the reason for the Cardinals lack of Post-Season presence was the fault of our offense. Consider the following:

1.) The Cardinals finished second to Atlanta in OPS for the NL - the were first in OBP. (STL was 5th overall, it's interesting to note that TORONTO was third)

This despite the following:

a.) Average (at best) production from 1b
b.) Average production when healthy from JD Drew
c.) A horrible OBP hole at the top of the lineup.

2.) STL lead the league in most of the fielding statistics (note: I find fielding difficult to accurately quantify - however a team that leads the league almost across the board can be said to be a good defensive team, I believe). Note that FLA was second.

3.) STL was by almost all measures horrible at pitching. from ERA to GDPs, we sucked. It's also interesting to note that FLA, PHIL, and ATL was just beneath or at league average. 3 of the top 5 pitching teams (LA, HOU, and AZ) didn't even make it into the post season.

So given the moves we've made and still need to make, let's discuss each of these aspects of the Cards overall game.

THE OFFENSE >>

1.) The core of our offense remains intact. In fact, at this hour, many of the same deficiencies remain. The key at this point being Reggie Sanders. For those who don't follow Mr. Sanders career numbers as closely as those of us who were advocating his employment earlier this fall - Reggie has a tenedancy to follow a good year with a poor one. Last year was his best year ever, let's hope this year isn't his worst.

If Reggie Sanders has an "on" year - we can expect *better* offensive numbers. If he has an off year I think we can postulate that he'll at least match Drew or Tino's production. Gall, Cox, and Luna/Butler at this point should be able to provide enough depth for STL to sufficiently fill in for a short injury.

So as we sit, most fans believe that there still remains a couple of holes in our offense. Namely:

a.) A left handed hitter. Let me dispell the myth that we must have a LH hitter right off. THERE IS ABSOLUTELY NO OBJECTIVE PROOF THAT IT MATTERS. In fact, you'd be hard pressed to suggest that the presence of Tino and maybe Drew had any tangible affect on how we approached pitching staffs last year. Would it be nice? Of course. A power LH hitter sandwiched in the middle of the lineup would be excellent.

b.) The leadoff spot. There is definately an issue at this point. The logical choice is to move Renteria into leadoff, but from what I understand, Edgar is "uncomfortable" hitting 1st and Tony won't force the issue (as well he shouldn't - when you have one of maybe the 25 best offensive shortstops in the history of the game - just let him hit).

However, I d caution against over reacting by signing Alomar or E Young to play 2b. Neither of them offer THAT much OBP over Bo Hart (and yes, Bo's numbers were skewed by his first trip round the bigs) but Bo comes in about 1/10th of the salary.

c.) OF/1b. Here's the largest "hole" in our lineup, IMHO. To match last year's production, we would at least need to match the combined Drew/Marrero output. This isn't difficult, any league average .750 OPS guy could do it. Unfortunately for STL, neither Robinson, nor Taguchi (or even Palmiero if we re-sign him before the 8th) can match those numbers. An alternate would be to continue to play Albert in the OF, and find an average 1b (Cox or Gall or a platoon with both/either of them) could do that easily. Heck, Galarraga or McGriff may be a cheap substitute that would give Gall another year of grooming. I don't believe this latter option is what Tony wants, however.

Either way - if STL does nothing and saves what's left of the budget for pitching, I don't think our production would suffer terribly. That is to say, it doesn't warrent overpaying for Walker, Alomar or Young - or to do much outside of an average OF/1b.

In fact, I kind of like the idea of letting Robinson get 450 ABs. H wouldn't be that much worse than Vina last year or EY/Alomar/Hart this year, but he would placate 1.) The ravenous pro-KRob fan base that remembers whiteyball without understand how the game has changed in the past 15 years, 2.) put a LH bat in the lineup, and 3.) For those teams out there foolish enough to worry about opposing teams with "speed" at the top of their lineup, we'll scare the crap out of them. The main reason I like it is because it wouldn't really hurt us that much, and gives KRob enough rope to hang himself. A half-year of this experiment and it should be obvious to everyone that he either can or can't make it full time in the big leagues. Come July 31st, we can see what kind of bargains we can pick up if he fails miserably.

The other reason to fill the OF/2b with Robinson/Hart is to spend more money on our obvious problem, pitching.

THE PITCHING >>>

PLEASE NOTE: THOUGH HE WAS NON-TENDERED, MARK REDMOND WAS NEVER AVAILABLE.

You don't just sign guys in 12 hours. He already had a deal with OAK in place when they non-tendered him. Yes, I would have liked to have had him in our rotation, yes he was the best option available, but no, it was never a possibility. Ownership finding Walt the budget to sign Maddux is more of a possibility (slim as it is).

Let it be said that we don't absolutely have to have a LH in the rotation. Quotes like "The Cardinals didn't win the NLCS because they couldn't start a Left-Hander on the mound" are the excuses and mythos of McCarvers everywhere.

So let us find the best starting pitcher (regardless of which hand he uses to drink his beer) possible, and sign him for the smallest and shortest contract possible.

I don't think that person is Greg Maddux. I think at this point that's Sidney Ponson. Now I'm not sure what Mr. Ponson and his agent are demanding, and I'm not sure how much Walt has to spend. But the overtures of "Sidney's first choice would be St. Louis" seem genuine enough. Ponson is NOT a true #1 and maybe not even a #2, but he would help us match up well against the pitching in our division, and at least allow us to post MUCH better numbers than we currently are.

A case can be made for Maddux, and if he and Scott Boras weren't FRICKIN' NUTS I think he'd be a great pickup. But anything over, say, $7million is a luxury, something better left to the pissing match between NYA and BOS.

I'd still like to see us pick up a quality right handed reliever (Looper, anyone?).

2003-12-16T02:31:00.000-08:00

Reading Joe Strauss' "Cardinals are vastly improved" article from Stltoday.com is like a kick in the face.

Don't get me wrong, I'm happy that Sanders and Suppan will now be playing under the arch for the majority of their games, it's some of the other gems that are killing me.

What upsets me the most is what's most noticeably absent - ANY talk of another outfielder. In ICQ yesterday, Steve, you said that you hoped we gave Jon Gall his shot - well if our other option is Mr. .300 OBP Robinson or So-so Taguchi - I hope we give Gall a shot, too.

I was going to lead off today's column with a big "Oh no, Raul Mondesi is on the front page of the Cardinals MLB.COM site". However, 1.) That's no longer the case and 2.) Again, if the other option is Robinson, I'd welcome Mr. OverratedOverpayed.

So before I launch into how much I like the Suppan/Sanders deals - let me talk about some interesting things in that Strauss article.

1.) It's all about the snaps for Carl Everett. We offered him the same deal we offered Sanders (apparently he was our 1st choice) and he took $1.5 million more over 2 years to play in Montreal. You know what? That's fine with me.

2.) We tried to sign Suppan in 2002. I should put an excalmation mark there. I NEVER heard any such item last year, and he played for only $3.8 million.

3.) Both Sanders/Suppan contracts are heavily back-loaded. Who is up for FA next year that we're counting on not bringing back? Hmmmm.....

4.) This Infuriates me : "In December 2001 the Redbirds contemplated signing Sanders to play left field while shifting Albert Pujols to first base. But rather than agree to Sanders' $1.8 million asking price, the club signed first baseman Tino Martinez to a three-year, $21 million deal and let Pujols remain in left field."

5.) For those of you who are hoping we DON'T sign Greg Maddux - He's visiting suitors next week and has no plans to be in St. Louis.

6.) Walt maintains his close relationship with Scott Boras by being "interested" in his clients - translation - we're a leverage-enhancing "rumor club" for Boras agents when they're hoping to sign elsewhere.

7.) "The Cardinals remain interested in free-agent second basemen Eric Young, Roberto Alomar and Ron Belliard." Now if we're "interested" in Bobby Alomar - this distrubs me. There are a few teams out there who need second basemen. Teams with more money that we have to spend. This means Bobby Alomar isn't interested in a 1 year contract for >$3 million.

Now I've been down on Ron Belliard in the past. But of EY, The Spitter, and Belliard - which one had a .35 OBP last year? That would be Ron. Which one is on the right side of 30? That would be Belliard. We could do a lot worse...

8.) Walt leaves New Orleans with $2million more than he came with. I simply don't understand our budget. I'm not privy to what Morris and AP expect to get in terms of new contracts. I'm sure it's a TON. But if you hit the Cardinal page under ESPN.COM and do the math, after giving Tino away, and assuming we can spend as much as we did last year, Walt had/has $30 million to play with. With the Drew deal thrown in that's somewhere over $30 million. Either the ESPN.COM page is wrong, or I'm just not getting the big picture as to how much Walt has to spend. If YOU have a clue, email me and let me know, because I just don't get it.

Finally, I'm kind of happy to see that we're signing Lil' Benes again. I hope something works out there.

Now onto the signings. I do like Suppan. His STATS/ESPN scouting report is scared of him being a "crafty-righthander" but since '97 he's been the very definition of "league average". His stats in Pittsburgh were an abberrition, but he seems like the kind of guy who can and will do well under Duncan.

I'm also pretty happy about the Reggie Sanders signing. Now that people don't expect him to become the "next Eric Davis" or play 3b, he's slowly becoming, well, the next Eric Davis. I liked the dig "the same number of extra-base hits as Sammy Sosa" in the Strauss article, but all in all having him at #6 or #7 in your lineup is a testament to a good lineup.

Now the problem is that Sanders, like everyone in our lineup except Jimmy, is right handed. There's not a lot of quality left handed outfielding left out there. Belliard is RH, too. Kerry "hometown hero" Robinson is LH. So here's hoping we find a quality Left handed OF-1b 1 year contract for not a lot of money from someone.

2003-12-15T11:49:00.000-08:00

Now that JD Drew has been traded, let me go ahead and make my first prediction for 2004:

JD Drew will win the NL MVP.

Now, on with the rest. Even though I'm thoroughly convinced that JD is going to have a monster season, I do like this trade. Despite TINSTAAPP, the Cardinals were able to get a good minor league pitcher from the Braves. So, by trading Drew and Marrero (I'm disappointed to see Marrero gone. I don't think he ever got a fair shake from La Russa.), the Cardinals were able to help themselves out now (Marquis and King), and in the future (Wainright).

I think your comparison of Marquis to Tomko is a good one. But, we may not have to worry about that. I saw a rumor somewhere (on Primer most likely) that Marquis might be flipped for Scott Williamson. In order for me to know if I'll like that deal, I'll need to figure out what the Cardinals need more of now, starting pitching or bullpen pitching.

One thing is for sure though, the trade of Drew and Marrero leaves two empty spots in the outfield. Well, that's not entirely true. Tony can always plug Kerry Robinson in right and So Taguchi in left, and pretend that he has an outfield. But, even with Edmonds still patrolling center, that would not be a good outfield.

There are still a few adequate outfielders available that the Cardinals can sign. Unfortunately, Jose Cruz Jr. isn't one of them. The Devil Fishies signed him. Out of the rest that are available (Mondesi, Gonzalez, Guillen, Sanders, and Lofton off the top of my head), I'd like to see Jose Guillen in right, and Reggie Sanders in left.

Finally, I think Koch would be worth a spot in the 'pen, but not at his current salary. And if the Cardinals sign Jeff Suppan, color me happy.

2003-12-14T07:55:00.000-08:00

Billy Koch + Dave Duncan - a match made in heaven?

It's long been rumored that Billy Koch really needs a good pitch after his triple digits fastball. Dave Duncan has revived more than one career by teaching a new, easily picked up pitch. If Koch can be had at a non-closer salary - wouldn't he make a heck of a lot of sense?

2003-12-14T07:25:00.000-08:00

Rondell (You can't spell Rondell without DL) White apparently took the Tiger's 2 year $6 million deal that Reggie Sanders was offered. Sanders is now "off the table". I hope he's on ours.

Jayson Stark of ESPN is claiming that Jose Cruz Jr. is on our table. I'm hoping we don't overpay. He's about average, and in my mind doesn't command a premium (like the $6 million we just saved by getting rid of Eli and Drew). Sanders and Cruz, at that money would be fine, but not one of those players.

I also read that Jeff Suppan was expected to sign with STL shortly.

Stark also writes that Wainright grew three (!) inches last year (he's 22) from 6'6" to 6'9" and scouts are wondering if that will/isn't messing with his "mechanics".

2003-12-13T12:37:00.000-08:00

I've been meaning to write about the post season for a while now, but it looks like something significant has happened that can't let me wait to collect all my thoughts.

It's being reported that the JD Drew era in St. Louis is over. Drew and Eli Marrero are being sent to Atlanta for Jason Marquis, Ray King, and Adam Wainright.

Let me begin by saying that I think the fans, organization, and media gave up on JD too fast. I also admire Eli a ton for coming back from cancer.

That being said, I love this trade on face value. Considering just players for players in the trade, this looks like a good win for STL. I'd be much more ecstatic if I hadn't come to an axiom after the Braves got rid of Neagle, "The Braves Just Don't Get Rid Of Good Pitching". Yet I think maybe the lifespan of my axiom is over, Millwood last year was a clear faux paus - and the lack of a bat may have prompted ATL to get rid of some real talent.

Marquis is a question mark. Before last season, the publicly available scouting report (from ESPN.COM) was : "Marquis has one of the premier arms in the league and the overall ability to emerge as a power pitcher. His fastball has plus movement and sits in the 94-96 MPH range. He also throws a hard slider and a modest changeup, and does an adequate job of mixing those tosses. Marquis' problems center on a lack of control. He admits that he thinks too much about his mechanics while on the mound instead of focusing on the situation. He also tends to get stubborn and is slow to make adjustments, which resulted in extended troubles during his first full season as a starter. Scouts remain concerned that the torque he places on his arm could lead to problems down the road."

Last year, he bombed. In a big way.

By the end of the year he was in demoted to make way for Mike Hampton. With the "head mechanics" we see in the above report, I'm wondering if he isn't Tomko II, Return of the Nutjob. Even if he is Tomko, I still have to like the trade for the three reasons below.

The first of those reasons is Ray King, an overweight but very serviceable Left hander (see Wells, David). KHe has almost a 2 to 1 K/BB ratio and gave up only 46 hits in 59 innings. Given Kline and Ray from the left, KIKO!!! and Eldred should be enhanced with one more pickup from the right side IMHO.

More than Marquis, I like the fact that we got Adam Wainright. I'm still doing more research on him, but according to one report on Baseball Primer; "Wainright was listed by BA as the Braves #1 prospect before the season-- he's 22, had a good year in AA ball this past year, and seemed to get stronger as the year progressed."

The final reason I like this deal is the fact that we saved possibly as much as $6 million in salary with the departure of JD and Eli and the small salaries our new additions are making. Walt seems to be trying sincerely to sign Albert long term before he gets to arbitration. Albert, Edgar, and Matt Morris should all be priorities for contract extentions and raises - they are not easily replaced.

Let's face it, loosing JD and Tino's offensive production isn't a huge blow. Guys playing at league average don't warrant a combined $11 million in salary. And offense didn't keep us out of October this year.

I do HATE this trade for one big reason, no marquee (excuse the pun) pitcher pick ups are in the cards (see, I could write sports headlines!) for us. No Maddux or Millwood, Buehrle signed a long term contract with the Chisox and Ponson wants to come to STL but we're not going to spend the money (which I actually think is just fine in Ponson's case).

So what's left for STL - well, the outfield for one thing. As it sits right now Edmonds/Robinson/Taguchi/Palmiero just doesn't seem like what we hope to field on opening day. I'd like to see us go after Reggie Sanders, if the rumored offer by Detroit is to be believed, a $2.5 million means to replace Tino's production and them some. The Yankees seem ready to overpay for Kenny Lofton, which is just fine with me, but he would have answered our perceived need for a leadoff hitter. I've always wanted to see Jose Cruz Jr. wear the birds and bats, but he seems to generate a lot of interest for a league average hitter. Unfortunately, there's not much left via free agency. Oh, sure, there's Vlad and Juan Gonzalez, but after the top teir, there's the Mike Cameron or the return of Felix Jose.

Second base still remains an issue. I'd rather underpay for Eric Young than overpay for Bobby Alomar - but the Ron Belliard rumor I read this AM almost made me loose my Frosted Mini-Wheats™. After 2nd base, and if we aren't going to pick up a Suppan for rotation insurance, the last hole left is the aforementioned RH reliever. While good options remain, it's not like we're going to go with a 2 closer model by picking up Urbina (not that I'd want him specifically).

All in-all, I like this a ton more than Drew for Odalis Perez (or *HACK* Jeff Weaver) straight up.

2003-09-06T18:47:00.000-07:00

My boss is a Cubs fan. Although not the baseball fanatic that you and I are (he calls runs "points". "How can you lose a game when you hit a grand slam? That's four points right there." It's annoying, yet funny at the same time), but he still keeps tabs on how the Cubs, Cardinals, and Astros are doing.

Anyway, after the Cubs handed the Cardinals their asses on a silver platter earlier this week, I vented my frustration to him, basically telling him what I posted back on Wednesday. So today, when I saw that the Cardinals were winning 10-3, I went up to him and told him. He asked me why I cared. I told him that I was telling him because he would want to know. Again, he asked me why I cared. So I said:

"Well, it's kind of like a bad car accident. You don't want to look, but you just can't help it."

So, they won 13-6 today. That's one of the great, yet frustrating things about baseball. A team can make a stiff like Todd Van Poppel look like Cy Young one day, and then the next day, tee off on the opposing pitchers like they're, well, Todd Van Poppel. Frustrating, yet great all at the same time.

Since I'm not expecting the Cardinals to make the playoffs, I'm already looking to next season. Alex, do you know of a place where there's a listing of this offseason's potential free agents? I'd like to see who might be available, and then get upset when I realize that the Cardinals are going to say they're too poor to go after some of the available pitching. Also, that will let me see what pitchers are older than 37, and I'll then know who will be on the Cardinals pitching staff next year.

Maybe I shouldn't look to next season. At least not now. I just ate.

2003-09-03T21:20:00.000-07:00

TINSTAAPP. I'm inclined to agree, until I see Mark Prior. I think that if there is a such thing as a pitching prospect, only guys like Prior qualify.

{profanity-laden rant}

Does it make me less of a fan if I say that I hope the Cardinals don't make the playoffs? I've fucking had enough of this sucking black vortex of doom known as the 2003 St. Louis Cardinals bullpen. Why the fuck should they have the priviledge of playing October baseball when they have a bullpen that rivals the 1998 Seattle Mariners 'pen? Yes, if they make the playoffs, it will be the first time in Cardinals history that they've made the postseason for four consecutive years. But I'm sorry. You can't get me excited about that, because with this god-awful excuse of a bullpen, the Cardinals would be nothing more than a sacrificial lamb for either the Braves or the Giants. I don't want another postseason that ends without the good guys taking home the big trophy with all the little flags on it. And if they're playing baseball in October instead of golf, that's EXACTLY what's gonna happen, because Matt Morris will pitch 8 shutout innings, and leave with a 2 run lead, only to have this god damn bullpen blow the god damn game for him. Then the same thing will happen to Woody Williams, followed by whoever is run out to the mound after him.

So, to hell with it. I want the Cardinals to have buy their tickets if they want to go to the playoffs.

I'm not done yet. Why the fuck was Woody Williams called on to pitch today? What good is expanding the rosters if you're not going to take advantage of it? Where was Jimmy Journell? Why wasn't Josh Pearce available? I don't care what the reason is, there isn't a good one that explains why there wasn't a FRESH pitcher available today when the rosters expanded two days ago. And you know what? This piss-poor roster management falls squarely on the shoulders of Tony La Russa. I don't think I'm quite to the point where I want his head lopped off, but I think it would be nice if Walt Jocketty has Davey Johnson's number in his PDA. Or Larry Dierker.

{/profanity-laden rant}

I'll bet you a dollar that the Cardinals keep Hitchcock around for next season.

2003-09-01T14:46:00.000-07:00

Well, first, let me say that TINSTAAPP. Secondly, I had heard that Pope's "stuff" was in serious decline. I'm not concerned with loosing him, as much as I'm concerned that our draft philosophy included high school pitchers this year.

BTW, if you jinxed Hitchcock by mentioning him, may you burn in the cold recesses of New Comisky/US Cellular forever. But yeah, that was my thought too, after one outing.

{sarcasm}
HOORAY!!! More at bats for Vina!
{/sarcasm}

2003-08-31T13:26:00.000-07:00

6 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 4 SO, 1 BB, 85 P

That line represents what Sterling Hitchcock did today against the Reds. If he continues to pitch well the rest of the season for the Cardinals, then I'll be forced to ask, "How in the hell does Walt Jocketty do it?" I still don't like that he gave up a first round draft pick to get him, but if Hitchcock solidifies the starting rotation to help out the bullpen, then it makes losing that first round pick MUCH easier to swallow. I say that because I think that there's a greater chance of Hitchcock helping the Cardinals make the playoffs and actually doing something once there, than there is of Justin Pope winning more than a handful of games as a St. Louis Cardinal (first round draft pick or not).

So, if Hitchcock (and DeJean for that matter. I really like most of the work he's done since coming over) continue to pitch well, where does that rank Walt Jocketty among the game's active GMs? Of course, that depends on how you rate him on things like signing free agents, building a pitching staff, stocking/developing the minor league system, etc. But, when it comes to trades, how many GMs out there are better? Jim Edmonds, Wood Williams, Scott Rolen, Chuck Finley, and now (maybe) Hitchcock. Of course, he DID trade for Jesse Orosco (but did get rid of Super Joe in the process) and Esteban Yan, but I think the acquisitions of the other guys I mentioned do more than enough to make up for those blips in the radar. Afterall, every GM makes at least the occasional bad trade.

Now, I think Walt's biggest test will be this offseason. Somehow, he's gonna have to do something with both the starting rotation and the bullpen, while giving Albert Pujols a substantial raise and figuring out something to do with JD Drew.

My prediction on Drew: he gets traded for pitching, plays in 140+ games, and puts up MVP-type numbers.

2003-08-30T17:55:00.000-07:00

Well, I was about to say that I know for sure it won't be Garret, because he and Danny Haren have been optioned to Class A Palm Beach (to make room for Russ Springer and Fernando Vina). But, then I saw that they're going to be recalled on Monday, so it's entirely possible that Garret will start that game. I wouldn't be at all opposed to Eldred starting that game. I don't know who else they're going to call up when the roster expands, but I'm guessing that Eldred will be just as good of an option as any.

As far as the "heart" or "drive" of the 2003 Cardinals, I don't doubt it at all. I don't think the team lacks anything in that department, and as you've said, those writers are silly for suggesting such a thing. Because there's a big difference between a lack of heart, and a lack of talent. And really, if those writers actually watched the sport that they're getting paid to write about, they would know what the Cardinals lack (pitching-wise anyway).

2003-08-29T03:46:00.000-07:00

Many silly "beat writers" claimed that this team, didn't have heart or the "drive" to compete. I'd say after the last two nights, they're wrong about this team.

I really like the DeJean signing, so far, and Hitchcock apparently will start this weekend against the Reds. The interesting question is Williams goes Monday against Prior, Morris (if that ankle holds up) Tuesday in the first game of the double header (Wood) and we have no idea who starts the second game. Chances are it won't be Garret - Tony was quoted as saying "It's just one of those freak things, the Cubs added four players who historically do well against Stephenson".

Fassero? Haren? Simontacchi? I'd go for Eldred, but no one's asking me...

2003-08-24T10:33:00.000-07:00

Finally, Walt does something. Will Hitchcock and DeJean help the team? Yes they will, and they already have, even though it wasn't with their pitching.

That's right, Esteban Yan was released. So, the bullpen was immediately improved just because of that.

Now, what do I think about the trade? Initially, I'm unimpressed. But, I was also unimpressed when the Cardinals traded for Woody Williams. However, the more I think about it, the more I realize that Hitchcock and DeJean can only help and improve the team's pitching. I say that because there's absolutely no way that the pitching, particularly the bullpen, could be any worse.

But, I'm somewhat disappointed that the Cardinals gave up Justin Pope to get Hitchcock. Yes, he was getting hammered down in A ball, but I don't like giving up the team's first overall draft pick until it's absolutely certain that he's not going to pan out (I'm not convinced that Pope has reached that point yet).

Now, the real question is, does this really do anything? Yeah, it improves the team. And it also counters the (pointless and unnecessary) moves the Cubs made when they acquired Randall Simon and Tony Womack. What's funny about that, is all the people that said, "The Cubs are making moves and improving their team! Why can't the Cardinals?!"

But again, does this really do anything? Well, it does, but not enough. It might be enough to shore up the bullpen and the rotation enough to let the Cardinals squeak by the Astros and win the division, but in all reality, that's about it. Yeah yeah, anything can happen in the playoffs, but 1) you have to get there first, and 2) when somebody says "anything can happen in the playoffs", I don't think that "anything" includes winning with a pitching staff as bad as the Cardinals.

One thing I am interested in though, is are these two guys veteran enough for Dave Duncan to work with? Esteban Yan wasn't, and I think a big part of that is because he's only 28, instead of 35+.

As for who the 4 and 5 starters are now, I definitely think Haren should be one of them. At the same time, I definitely think that Tomko should NOT be one of them. So that leaves Stephenson, Simontacchi, Eldred, and Journell. Journell is now on the DL, so he's out. I think that Simontacchi is much better suited (this year anyway) for the bullpen. And you pretty much summed up what I think about Stephenson. So, that leaves Eldred. Would he work in the rotation? It could be worth a try, especially when you consider that Jeff Fassero wasn't bad when he was put in the rotation. So, Stephenson or Eldred? I say flip a coin, because I think you'll get about the same results from either one of them.

2003-08-23T02:37:00.000-07:00

My initial reaction to the trade is "thank you Uncle Walt for not giving up any REAL talent for rent-a-pitchers"!

It's fairly obvious that we needed to do something, I'm not sure this was/is it, but these aren't bad moves.

I'll start with DeJean, as I think he'll actually be the most important of the moves. He's 25 days younger than I am. Somehow, that makes me want to root for him. This year, his BB/K ratio is inline with (if not better than) what you would expext from his last 2 years in MIL. The difference this year are the hits allowed. Some of this might change with STL's defense behind him, or maybe Dunc can see that "slight change" that will make a difference.

Either way, I think he'll stand to improve, and even at his current production levels, he's an improvement over the disaster that is the bullpen. The question will be Tony's use. With Izzy, are we looking at a Rivera/Wetteland approach? Or is DeJean going to lose innings to Eldred and the rest of the scrap heap? My hope is that by Sept, we have that Davis/Gossage, Rivera/Wetteland combination to get us past the 7th. With Tomko and/or Stephenson (addressing that in the Hitchcock discussion) It's then the 6th that scares me.

When I saw that we got Sterling, after the "was it Drew?" question was answered - my next thought was to wonder who was out of a job. Depending on how today (Morris!?) goes, we could have 2 new starters in the rotation as early as Sept. 1, it looks like. Initial indications are that Hitchcock won't fit immediately into the rotation, which is smart as he's started, what, one game this year? But IF Morris isn't being rushed back (yeah, right) and is able to regain form, that leaves a front 3 of Morris, Woody, and Hitchcock. So who's the filler at the back end?

I'm hoping Tomko is the odd man out. Stephenson at least has a league average/replacement level WHIP (bad stat, I know). He also, in a very "cuff stat" way gives you an 80% chance of NOT blowing out in any given start (assuming the PITT start was just his trend, and not an indication of something horrible). To me that means in his last 5-7 starts this year, we have a good chance of giving our offense a shot to win 4 or 5 of them. Assuming no further moves, that leaves Tomko and Haren battling for that 5th position. Frankly, I don't care. One's a rookie who I'd like to see pitch, the other is a head case that I'd like to see straightened out. I think Tomko's done, though. If I gauge Tony LaRussa correct, he's going to be more patient with a young kid than someone who can't focus on the mound. And that's fine with me.

Frankly, I'm actually ready to give the 5th spot to Eldred. He's got a 2/1 K/BB ratio, and strikes out a batter an inning. With Springer possibly coming back and the addition of Dejean, he's a better option than the rookie or the headcase, and too good (in the current talent level of the pitching staff) to have as a 4th RH.

Also, in late Sept, assuming we're still battling for a playoff spot, and it's a crucial game, would you rather have Tomko, Haren, or Eldred try to keep you in the game for 5 innings?

If I were manager, I'd actually give #5 to Journell, but Tony would likely eat meat before giving the rookie a chance with our playoff hopes on the line.

My guess is that we're still going to try to get a LH SP to replace Fassero (based on Uncle Walt's comments). I'm hoping we release Yan, and send Simontacchi or Journell down to Memphis to get some starts. Journell, btw.. Has had 2 good relief outings since his first "Jitters" explosion.

2003-05-10T00:07:00.000-07:00

Thank God for small miracles. The Cardinals won today, despite the bullpen pitching. Yes, it was for only one inning. But, i'll take a small victory like that anytime I can.

However, this bullpen is still pathetic. I can't describe my frustration. 10 blown saves in 15 attempts (or something like that) is... well, what adjective can be used to properly describe how bad that is? If Tony La Russa didn't own stock in Rolaids before this season, I bet he does now.

While the bullpen is a problem, an even bigger problem might be fixing it. JD Drew and Fernando Vina for Roberto Alomar and Armando Benitez? Exactly what good will that do? The last time I checked, Benitez was having his own problems getting people out. I guess because of that, he'd fit right in with this cast of characters right now. I guess it's possible that Benitez could benefit from getting out of New York. Who wouldn't? Well, other than Tino...

It was suggested to me that because of salary, the Cardinals could trade Garrett Stephenson to the Marlins straight up for Vladamir Nunez. Not a bad idea. The Cardinals could slip Eldred or Hermanson into the rotation until another alternative presents itself, and Nunez might prosper under Dave Duncan.

While neither of those trades might not sound like the best options (and it's quite possible that they aren't), if they were made, it would at least show me that the Cardinals KNOW that there's a problem, and that they are at least trying to address it. With that in mind, I guess I couldn't complain too much. Well, I take that back. The Cardinals were addressing a first base "problem" with Tino, and I complained about that until I was blue in the face. So, forget I said anything.

I don't see the trade with the Mets as being realistic. So other than the Stephenson/Nunez suggestion, what's out there that the Cardinals can do, despite being in a "budget crunch"? I've seen people reaching with names like Mike MacDougal and Matt Anderson.

My idea? How about trying this:

Kevin Ohme, Gabe Molina, Matt Duff, Kevin Joseph...

They're cheap, and won't cost anything except the services of Hermanson, Springer, Eldred, and either Crudale or KIKO!!!.

That may not work, but I think it's worth trying first before giving up on Drew, and paying for Benitez.

You know what else needs to be fixed? Fernando Vina's OBP. I think that if the Cardinals traded Vina for Alomar, it might benefit them in the long run. They wouldn't be tempted to pick up his option for next year.

2003-04-27T20:49:00.000-07:00

And the Cardinals didn't trade for Kevin Millwood because...? Now, I know it was because of the money. But, isn't baseball supposed to be about trying your hardest to put a team together to win?

Forget the pyramids of Giza, forget Stonehenge, and forget America's inexplicable love for reality TV. There is an even greater mystery upon us: How can a bullpen look SO bad for one inning, and absolutely SPARKLE for the next 11 innings (of the same game of course)? The performance of the Cardinals bullpen today was simply maddening. Garrett Stephenson has to be pissed (and rightly so). And for the second day in a row, the bullpen pisses away a good performance by the starting pitcher. This leads me to my next question: Will the REAL Steve Kline please stand up?

Need proof that the "Hold" statistic is bogus? Steve Kline "earned" one yesterday. In the same game he lost.

Let's see, what else is drawing my ire...

1) Fernando Vina's .282 OBP. Stellar. Simply Stellar.

2) Tino Martinez only having 9 RBI. Now, this is hardly his fault. He's definitely doing what he needs to do. He's getting his hits. But why isn't there anybody on base when he does it? Is Jimmy driving them all in?

I guess I should be happy that the Cardinals won. And I am. I'm just irritated in the fashion that they had to go about doing it. Something HAS to be done about that bullpen...

2003-04-25T20:26:00.000-07:00

Finally, the good guys won a game, and did it without heart-stopping drama. From the game, I've determined a couple of things.

First, either Albert Pujols' elbow isn't as badly hurt as has been let on, or Tony La Russa thinks that Tommy John surgery is only for pitchers. I know that they need Pujols' bat in the lineup, but what happened to "he's not allowed to throw for 3 weeks"? That was said 3 days ago, so what does Tony do tonight? He starts Pujols in left field. I can understand his start at first base last night (very little throwing at first base, getting Tino out of the lineup against Hampton, and getting Pujols in the lineup at the same time. Can't they do that everyday?). But it's kind of required that left fielders throw a baseball. And despite needing Albert in the lineup, I don't think risking major injury is worth putting him in left field.

Second, I have the perfect solution to the Cardinals' bullpen problem. Really, it's simple. Just have the starters throw complete games every night.

Seriously though, something needs to be done about the bullpen. Watching the hitters bounce back and re-take the lead last night, only to have the 'pen blow it in the 9th was more frustrating than watching the bats flail helplessly at pitches the previous 4 games. Now, it's entirely possible that the bullpen performances we've seen so far might not last another week, and would just be a sluggish start. But, how much time should be given before something is attempted to be done to correct what is, right now, a problem?

I e-mailed Sean Forman my idea about the Chuck Finley Signing Pool. It's up as a clutch hit on Primer, as well as a Rickey Signing Pool (Rickey's last name isn't necessary, because even people who aren't Rickey know who Rickey is). They are both on the same clutch hit. Make your predictions today!

2003-04-15T14:38:00.000-07:00

I really, really like that idea. It's been a while since I've caught the Japanese version of "baseball tonight" on the international channel here, but IIRC most Japanese stadiums are still turf. I wonder how his defense would fair in STL. I think the problem with that scenario is cash money.

You know, I, worry about the financial future of our *cough, cough* small market club. Now I've done a little work, a little guesswork, and here's what I recall our big dollars are spent on this year:

Edmonds : $8mil
Tino: $8mil
Rolen: $9mil
Williams: $7mil
Izzy: $6mil
Edgar: $6mil
Morris: $4mil
Vina: $4mil

Total big Salaries : ~$45 million of our $75+ budget on 5 position players and 3 pitchers.

Now let's assume some things for 2004 (aka no career years from anyone but Pujols and others already in LTContracts)

1.) Buerhle signs but for a hometown "discount" of only, say $8mil.
2.) Morris ups for the same.
3.) Finley is signed for next year, too, but at discount warranted of a 44 year old LHSP.
4.) Tomko continues to be Tomko and is a sunk cost.
5.) Matsui goes for $11mil, being that there will be a bidding war, and he will buck the salary trend.

In that case:

Matsui: $11mil
Edmonds: $8mil
Tino: $8mil
Rolen: $9mil
Buehrle: $8mil
Morris: $8mil
Williams: $8mil
Izzy: $6mil
Edgar: $6mil

That?s without Drew and Pujols getting any significant raises. So we now spend $72 million on those players, alone. This is a significant budget issue, and if you count Tomko's $4million as a sunk cost, it becomes almost as much as our entire budget this year. I assume almost $20 million in players who we're talking about signing or could very easily sign, but it's interesting to judge Walt on the basis of "wiggle room", of which we have none. I'm very nervous about 2005-8

So where can a modern *cough* small market ball-club make "deals"?

ALEX'S TREATSIE FOR GM BUDGETS:

1. Hold faithfully to the Pareto Principle: try to get 80% of "star value" at a given position for 20% of the costs. This, as much as the focus on college pitchers and OBP, is a lesson from the success of the A's of the naughts. This is especially true for the positions of 1b, corner OF, 3-5 starters and closer.

2. The difference between Whitey Herzog and Bozo the Clown as managers might be 5 games in the standings, but you MUST find the best pitching coach available. This can't be understated. Build your staff to that coach's strengths.

3. Make the bullpen a priority, but wisely. DON'T overspend on a closer. Again, you can get 80-90% of the results of a "star" closer for a little more than 20% of the cost. If you must spend an amount of money comparable to an average position player in the bullpen, make it on your "fireman". Supplement the fireman with 5th starters, and minor league talent that is a year away from the rotation that you can give 100 IPs to. Also, go heavy on the NRIs in spring. They're cheap, it doesn't cost you much, and usually you can bet on a career year or resurgence from at least one of them that's worth near major league average salary.

4. Overspend on at least one, if not two or three "freak" positions. Get Pareto to work in reverse. Assuming you can get 80% of star production from 1b the corner OF, and at least one other IF position, go ahead and get as much "star" value as you can at CF, 2b, SS, or 3b. Those are places where you can easily if not overwhelmingly exceed the run production of the league average at that position by having a player in the top 20% of the league.

5. Don't be afraid to trade young pitching and infielders (what Walt is best at). They have the least chance of working out in the big leagues, and if you can get another GM to give you average or better talent that answers a need - go for it. If they do work out, you can always hope to get them back in 4 or so years; near, at, or just past peak performance.

So what should the 2004 and beyond Cardinals do?

Well, for one thing don't spend significantly at 1b or closer (unless they move Albert or Rolen there to make room for other, less expensive talent at 3b/OF) after Tino and Izzy are gone.

Second, I wouldn't jump at Buerhle. Even if you can over look the signs that point to injuries-soon, he REALLY wants to sign with STL, so Walt could get him to sign for less and defer as much as possible.

Don't be afraid to let Matt Morris go if he's priced in the $10 million range. We could get 2 or even 3 league average pitchers (SP or RP) for that much.

Next, Edgar is above average enough that he's probably worth keeping around, but only for a few more years. Anything above 3 years is silly.

With SP, don't pull another Woody Williams. It's one thing for Dunc to turn scrap into a #2 or #3 pitcher, it's quite another to give scrap 80% or above #1 starter $$. STL panicked this year and we'll be paying that price into 2006.

I agree, Vina is gone. Gold glove or not, unless he signs a 1 year for a terrifically LOW amount, loses the ego and can swallow the move to the #7 spot, Walt should forget him. Nice guy and all, but I'm guessing that he'll decline to league average or below in the next 36 months.

Finally, given the contact terms to Edmonds and Rolen, I think the key to STL being competitive beyond 2004 will be Pujols and Drew. I think establishing good faith in Drew and signing him long term when his stock is low is a very critical. If we can get him until he's, say, 32, move him to 1b in 2005 (2003 or 2004 if we could possibly get rid of Tino) for $4million a year or less, that would give us flexibility to spend money at 2b/SS that we'll need to continue to be NLCS level competitive. Apply Pareto to RF/LF by signing a Matt Lawton/Bubba Trammel type of player for less than average and use that $$$ to afford Albert (for the sake of all that's Budweiser, Brats, and Busch, keep Albert as happy as possible).

2003-04-14T21:17:00.000-07:00

Whew! Albert's hand is only bruised. Tonight was the second time I've seen him get hit by a pitch on the hand. He has something Jeff Bagwell doesn't: harder bones in his hands.

Here's a gem from Jeff Gordon of the Post-Dispatch:

"And, when J.D. Drew finally gets his wheels back, should the Cardinals deal him for a proven reliever?"

He's kidding right? A proven reliever? First of all, the Cardinals supposedly don't have anymore money to spend, so how are they going to afford a "proven" reliever? Those cost money. Second, is it really necessary to trade JD Drew for one? No it's not, and I'll give you two words that say why it isn't: Mike Crudale (all Peter Gammons jokes aside). Mike Crudale certainly wasn't "proven" when the Cardinals called him up last season, and he did a fantastic job out of the 'pen. Third, I'm sick of the Cardinals acquiring, or trying to acquire "proven" players. Proven winners! Proven clubhouse leaders! A proven veteran presence! I mean, the Cardinals signed Tino because he's "proven". But what has his "proven-ness" done for them? Oh yeah. He's provided good defense at a position where defense is a big SECONDARY priority (can you even call first base defense a priority?)

I don't know about you Alex, but I'm really starting to like Orlando Palmeiro (and if you say the Cardinals signed him because he's a proven winner [look at his World Series ring from last year!], I'll scream).

I don't know if you were able to watch the game on Sunday against the Astros, but when I was watching it, I started to think about what Edgar Renteria's future could be with the Cardinals. I think he's a fine shortstop, and I think he could handle the position for at least 3 more years before his range starts to decline. But how do you think he would fare at second base? I think the Cardinals have a chance to keep their middle infield rock solid if they go about it the right way (and if things that I've read are accurate). Here's my proposal:

After this season, the Cardinals decline Fernando Vina's option. I like Vina and all, but he's on the wrong side of 30, and as he's gotten older his most important skill as a leadoff hitter has gotten worse. By declining Vina's option, that opens the door for another middle infielder. Since the Cardinals have shown that they want to try to tap into the Japanese market, then why not go after one of the Japanese players who can actually play? The Cardinals can bid on Kazuo Matsui. If he's as good as everything I've read says he is, then with him and Edgar up the middle, they'd have an even better infield than they have right now.

I don't think it will happen, but i think it's something that the Cardinals should at least look at. If they can afford it... *cough*

2003-04-10T19:41:00.000-07:00

Words can't describe how much I hate it when the Cardinals have to play in Colorado. It always seems that they find some way to give the game away. So while I was at work today, paying attention to the game as best as I could, I got to wondering if their play is always this frustrating when playing a mile above sea level.

To find out, I hopped on Retrosheet. Looking at just the Cardinals wins and losses in Denver, I found a mixed bag. Historically, the Cardinals are 6 games under .500 when playing in Coors field (23-29). Sprinkled in that record is a season of no wins and 6 losses. Another season of 1 win and 5 losses. There's also a season where the Cardinals won all 3 of the games played in Colorado.

So what conclusion did I come to? The Cardinals aren't nearly as bad playing in Colorado as I had initially thought, and my frustration stems from:

1) The premature panic that always sets in when the Cardinals get bombed early in one game, and blow the next game in the late innings (despite the season being early, and there still being more than 150 games yet to play)

2) How much I hate the Astros.

3) My job.

Well, the Braves snatched up Shane Reynolds. I had read that in a recent throwing session in front of scouts (including some from the Cardinals), his fastball was topping out at 87 MPH. Certainly not fast enough to blow anybody away, but that doesn't stop Jamie Moyer from getting people out, and it didn't stop Andy Benes from pretty much dominating everybody the second half of last season.

So, knowing what Dave Duncan has done in the past with veterans, I wish the Cardinals had signed him. But, I think that the reason why they didn't is because as you've stated numerous times, the Cardinals already have some kind of deal worked out with Chuck Finley.

To close, I'll say this: If anybody says that the 2003 Royals are last year's Angels anytime in the next 4 months, I'm going to scream.

2003-04-03T20:20:00.000-08:00

It's good to see that the acquisition of Cal Eldred is paying dividends so early in the season...

Anyway, good work by Stephenson today. I know that it's only been one game each by him and Woody, but hopefully it's a sign of things to come, and maybe it will shut the mouths of the naysayers.

Is Albert Pujols a full-fledged god yet, or is he still just a minor deity?

I was looking at the Memphis Redbirds roster, and saw that John Gall is on it. I didn't know that he had climbed the ladder that fast. He spent 2000 in short season A ball in New Jersey, and split 2001 between Peoria and Potomac. I'm not really sure where he was last year, but he could have been in AA. I know that comment on him in BP2002 painted him as a player that wasn't anything all that special (let me know if you want the exact quote). But, if he was in short season A ball in 2000, A ball in 2001, and AA last year, doesn't that mean that he's making good, solid progress? Of course, this is BP we're talking about, so bias caveats should apply.

2003-04-01T21:11:00.000-08:00

I guess since it's only the first game of the season, it really doesn't matter that the pitching wasn't too hot as long as the Cardinals won. So, it's good to see them kick off the season with a W.

But, despite the win, I have a couple of questions/observations.

First, since it was only the first game of the season, was it really wise to have Jim Edmonds start? I know that you want to win as many games as possible, but do you really want to risk Edmonds hurting himself again just for one win? I certainly don't. The games that he'll play in when healthy are far more important winning on opening day. To me, the risk simply does not justify the reward.

Second, I hope Jason Isringhausen gets healthy real fast because I simply can't stand how Tony La Russa uses his bullpen without his closer. Jeff Fassero for one batter in the 9th? Why even bother?

Also, Tino is on pace to hit 162 home runs! But, Royce Clayton is too...

To close, I'd just like to say that MLB Extra Innings is the greatest thing to happen to baseball since the game was invented.

2003-03-31T16:18:00.000-08:00

WOHOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!

Yeah, it wasn't the greatest day for our pitching, but boy - the fans were NUTS in St. Louis!

Good hitting beats bad pitching, not vice versa.

2003-03-30T10:45:00.000-08:00

Sorry for the long absence. But, let's get down to business.

After many cold, winter days, baseball season has arrived. I don't know about you Alex, but I think that Opening Day should be proclaimed a national holiday. Everybody should have the day off, kids and adults alike.

Anyway, before I make my season predictions, let's talk about some things closer to the team. First, I was shocked when I found out that Hamilton and Levine were released. Why? It's simple. Because by cutting Hamilton, they got rid of a veteran presence (maybe he wasn't proven enough). And with Levine's release, they got rid of a guy who knows how to win. I guess they thought that with the combined rings of Tino, Edgar, and Joe Girardi, they had enough guys who know how to win.

But, I'm glad that the Cardinals released them. Because as you stated, I think they were released because management realized they could get the same, if not better, innings out of less expensive guys (like KIKO!). That, however, doesn't explain giving them guaranteed money. And you're right, somebody screwed up by guaranteeing them close to a million dollars.

Next, congratulations to KIKO! on finally getting to play with the big boys.

Alex, you and I briefly discussed Shane Reynolds' release the other day. Again, I think the Cardinals should try to acquire him, even if he's only giving some innings to Memphis for the time being. If he's in Memphis, it gives him a chance to get/keep his arm in shape, and it gives the Cardinals a bit larger safety net for when somebody in the rotation gets hurt. Plus, if he's signed to a minor league contract, and he throws batting practice instead of quality innings, the team hasn't really lost anything.

Re: Fearing the Cubs. There's only one team in the Central that I really think the Cardinals need to look out for, and that's Houston. However, I can see how the Reds and Cardinals can be called similar. Both teams have a good offense with questionable pitching. However, the Reds have a few things working against them, namely Griffey and Bob Boone. As for the Cubs, where's the offense (as you said)?

One last thing before I get to my predictions: There's a new definition for "sunk cost". Simply put, the new definition for "sunk cost" is Damion Easley.

And now, here are my 2003 predictions for division winners and World Series champion:

AL East: Yankees
AL Central: White Sox
AL West: Athletics
Wild Card: Red Sox

NL East: Phillies
NL Central: Cardinals
NL West: Giants
Wild Card: Astros

World Series champion: Athletics

I don't know about you Alex, but I found the NL very tough to pick. It seems to me that none of the contenders really separate themselves from each other. If that's the case, I think we could see some really interesting division races. I think out of all 6 divisions, the last one to be decided will be the NL West.

You have any predictions?

2003-03-27T07:26:00.000-08:00

Well, that's it. They released Hamilton and Levine. So the rotation is:

Morris, Williams, Tomko, Stephenson, Simontacchi. ( goofed on my previous speculation of Jason starting in Memphis)

The bullpen shapes up to be:

Eldred, KIKO! KIKO! KIKO!, Hermanson, and Russ Springer from the Right, with Kline, Painter, Fassero and possibly Ankiel from the left.

I wonder what's going to happen when Izzy gets back. My guess is KIKO! gets to play in Memphis if Cal still has an arm attached. The nice part is that at anytime if a starter goes down, we can shuffle Cal or Dustin into the rotation, with KIKO! and Mike Crudale (there, used it in a post) ready to step up.

So to find out who our relievers are going to be only cost us $900,000. Somebody, somewhere screwed up this winter by giving these guys guaranteed money. I'd be willing to bet a big part of why they got released was because they would make more money, vs. KIKO! and Russ, who, I believe, is at MLB minimum.

Apparently, we're still trying to decide between So Taguchi and Kerry Robinson in the OF.

WHAT IN THE WORLD? While neither are good options for 200 ABs, at least Kerry and his speed can get on base 1/3 of the time. At least Kerry doesn't seem lost on fly balls hit from a wooden bat.

I'm starting to fear the Cubs less and less. I don't think their offense will score enough runs to match their pitching. As bad as some people make LaRussa out to be, I think our ticket to the post season this year will likely be Tony and Dave getting the most out of our patchwork pitching staff (look at who won 97 games last year), the ineptitude of Jimy Williams, and Dusty's disdain for youth.

2003-03-11T03:49:00.000-08:00

You know, that's a very good point. How has our 3rd world drafting gone? While it's obvious to everyone but Chris Kahrl that the organization employs a diverse population, I can't recall too many unique Latino draftees making it. Pablo Ozuna will have his opportunity with the Rockies this year, Manny Aybar is still hucking ball somewhere, I'm not sure I'd count the most Jr. Molina, but we certainly aren't the Expos of the mid 90's. The Mrs. and I used to go see the Harrisburg Senators when their lineup included Vidro, Vlad, Cabrerra, Fullmer, and Bocachica. You just knew watching Vlad that he was something special. They had the wooden outfiled billboards, and more than once I saw him hit a line drive off the wall that made this incredible ball-on-wood "thwack" sound. Reminded me of how hard Terry Pendleton hit when he first came up.

Did you see that the most Jr. Molina has "enamored" LaRussa, btw? Just what we need, a 5th catcher. Maybe he'll be able to hit.

Garret expects to be traded? Not likely. Considering the market and the right arm zombies that compose the bottom half of our rotation, even if he's the odd man out I don't think he'll be wearing a different uniform come July 31. I fully expect Simontacchi and Journell to start the year in Memphis, with Garret or "Hermy" at the #5 spot (my guess is Garret). Jason has options, I believe, and if Eldred/Stephenson/Hermanson/Carpetner are paid similar or more money, and are pitching at or above the level Jason did last year, they Proven Veterans? are going to be the ones getting the ball every 5th day. Acutally, I still expect that Finley will be in the 4th spot come May 15th. It wouldn't surprise me at all if our rotation come June 1 were: Morris, Williams, Finley, Eldred, Stephenson/Hermanson. Of course, it wouldn't surprise me if the rotation were Eldred, Stephenson, Journell, Simontacchi and Dan Serafini by June 1, either, considering injuries and luck....

Did you see where we're paying Albert $900,000 this year? I hope he's cool with that, because that's like the bargain of the century.

2003-03-09T19:21:00.000-08:00

I saw that picture of Rolen diving for the foul ball, and it's frightening. Even moreso when you consider that, like you said, it's only spring training.

Also, I agree with you 100% about all of the articles concerning Rick Ankiel. By now, EVERYBODY knows that he's had (or still has) control problems. There's absolutely no need to point out in every article that he threw 18 wild pitches in one inning in the 2000 ALDS. Like you, I want to know if his control isn't coming around. Otherwise, just give me his pitching line, and what Dunc and La Russa thought of his pitches.

So Taguchi sucks.

Yes, he sucks. But really, I think that's being a little too generous. I don't know about you, but I really think that after his experiment, the Cardinals should focus their foreign scouting efforts in Latin America. Now, don't get me wrong. I'm not at all opposed to them doing scouting in Asia; there are a lot of really good baseball players there. But if the Cardinals are going to do scouting in Asia, and sign established Asian players, they should be signing the ones who can actually play.

I don't know about you, but I'm worried about Jimmy's pulled calf. I have a bad feeling that it's going to linger, and give him problems all season.

Good news! Cal Eldred's arm is still functional. The bad news is that it's only a matter of time before it isn't.

2003-03-05T07:11:00.000-08:00

You know, I appreciate the fact that Scott Rolen is is a gamer and all, but it's like the third day of spring training, there's no need to try and injure yourself for a foul ball.

On the flip side, are we going to have a huge article every time Rick Ankiel has an outing? How is that going to be productive? If he throws 10 balls to the backstop, ok, I'll want to read about it. But the Post-Dispatch is just increasing the media glare on him, and if they were to just treat him like any other pitcher, I think it would be helpful.

To me the bigger story is "not only can he not hit, but apparently routine fly balls confuse Taguchi." I'm usually really lenient with Cardinal players, and I'm very happy that we have had the broad mind to get a player from Japan...

but So Taguchi sucks.

Nice guy I'm sure - seems like he'd be great to have around and all, but he really doesn't deserve a spot on the roster. Especially not when Kenny Lofton, et. al. are going to sign for about what we're paying So.

Speaking of pitchers and spring, I'm just going to say his name: Jimmy Journell. That's all I'm sayin'....

2003-03-01T22:10:00.000-08:00

I don't see the combination of Valdez-Reynolds on the list. Oh yeah, that's right. They were busy signing pitchers that, well, can't pitch.

Re: Stechschulte. Although I like him (I like any player who hits a home run on the first pitch he ever sees in the big leagues. Even players named Esteban Yan.), I think he's an afterthought now. I think the Cardinals grew tired of his act last season when they sent him down, and I really don't think their future plans include him, injured or not.

But, they may not need him anyway if Russ Springer continues throwing in the 90s. Well, at least until his arm falls off.

Rick Ankiel: 1 IP, 1 K, 2 BB, 0 R, 16 pitches, only 5 strikes. I honestly think he's working his way out of the woods, but I'm not convinced he's there yet. But, I can't tell anything about those pitches. How far off the plate were they? How many of them were in the dirt? Don't know. I do think it was a positive first step though.

Also, Ankiel had this to say: Reminded that the Marlins had waited 15 pitches before swinging, Ankiel cracked, "It ain't my fault if they can't hit it."

Genius. Pure genius.

2003-03-01T05:34:00.000-08:00

Poll on Stltoday.com -

Question of the day:

Morris, Williams and Tomko are set as the Cards' top three starters. Which combination will emerge this spring as the No. 4-5 starters?

  Stephenson-Simontacchi
  Stephenson-Hermanson
  Stephenson-Eldred
  Simontacchi-Hermanson
  Simontacchi-Eldred
  Hermanson-Eldred

ugh.

In other news, Steschschulte is out for 3 more months, at least. I'm guessing that with the exception of Cal Eldred, whoever loses out in the poll above gets to be middle relief.

2003-02-28T04:09:00.000-08:00

WoHooo!!

Here in lousy Ohio we've got nothing but snow, and it seems like winter will never end. This, somehow, is like the first signs of thaw, a big crack across the frozen pond that you hadn't seen the day before.

I think Rogers would be a very, very good pickup. He was top 30 in the majors last year in support neutral (higher than Matt Morris, actually), and would add some stability even if he is a bit of a headcase. As much as I think Rogers would be a good pickup, I still really think that there's a handshake between STL management and Chuck Finley.

Of course, we can't afford Finley if we can't afford Rogers, can we?

I'd be willing to bet that STL could really still afford both, but the extra funding necessary for Finley and Rogers would involve political/financial maneuvers with executive managment on the part of Walt/Tony, and those would likely be such a pain to undertake that at this point they're thinking it's much easier to just stick with the guys we've already invited.

I'm fast becoming a fan of Journell. I really hope he gets some inning this year. I'd like to see him match his potential.

2003-02-27T20:45:00.000-08:00

Well, the Cardinals got off to a good start in Grapefruit League play today, beating the Mets 6-3. Now, we all know that preseason game results mean nothing, and in no way can forecast how a team is going to do in the regular season (just ask the Kansas City Royals). But, I don't care. I like seeing the Cardinals win, even if it's just the first game of spring training.

Things from the game:

Stephenson pitched 2 innings, giving up a run on 5 hits, no walks, and one hit batter (33 pitches). That's a lot of hits and a lot of pitches for 2 innings, but it's the first game of spring training. So, I don't see that as a big thing at all.

Fernando Vina did NOT swing at the very first pitch of the spring training season. No really, he didn't. If you don't believe me, you can look here. Anyway, he finished with a couple of doubles, a couple of RBIs, and a sacrifice fly.

Jimmy Journell pitched a couple of innings, and his only blemish was Ty Wigginton's home run. Although he'll more than likely start the season in Memphis, I think we'll see him on the Busch Stadium mound before the September call-ups (health permitting of course).

Opening day is fast approaching...

2003-02-25T07:53:00.000-08:00

If I had the choice between 1 "closer" and 2 "firemen", I'd take the 2 "firemen". That gives you 2 lights-out pitchers to get you out of high-leverage situations. In addition to this, if you want one of them to actually "close" for you, one of them can do that for you, while still having a good guy to get you out of the 7th inning, one run lead, with runners on base and 1 out situation. Also, this keeps their saves down, thereby keeping their cost to you down, while not decreasing their effectiveness at all.

The Cardinals are interested in Kenny Rogers. They say he's still too expensive for him, but I think if he was signed, it would be a nice, league-average, innings-eating addition to the pitching staff. It would also push a long-reliever, spot-starter to the bullpen.

I'm reading some good things about the pitching on stltoday.com. Opening day can't get here fast enough.

2003-02-21T15:26:00.000-08:00

I heard on the radio today Rickey talking to the Padres (again) and they might give him a shot. What do they have to lose?

I do wish we had a mid-level left-handed starter, or at least an innings eater. I think the starters are all a little too similar, especially after Morris, who has slightly better velocity and movement than the others. Williams, Tomko, Simontacci, Hermanson, Stephenson, Eldred, Hamilton -- all have over the top 88-92 mph fastballs. Teams with good hitters (especially left-handed ones) who see similar righties three or four days in a row might benefit, no? All of this plus the points made in previous posts make me feel like Finley has not pitched his last game in Cardinal red. Boston and Anaheim have said they won't give a draft pick for him.

The last part of Alex's prior post - "have 2 very good relief pitchers, using the best of the two as a fireman, and the next best as a closer... " reminds me of Dayley and Worrell in the late eighties. I remember being confident when Dayley came in but holding my breath if Worrell let anybody get on in the ninth. Worrell got the saves, but many felt Dayley was the more effective pitcher. It's not that unlike Kline/Izzy (although Izzy doesn't scare me quite as much as Todd used to). Having a pair of closers, one right-handed and one left-handed, has worked in the past too. Roger McDowell and Jesse Orosco had 22 and 21 saves, respectively, for the 1986 pond scum. Think about the flexibility the manager would have. But now, with egos and salaries, every team seems to have the one guy that's dubbed "the closer." And said "closers" don't like to sit out in the pen while some other reliever gets a chance to make a save.

I got a chance to meet Darrell Evans today. Super nice guy :). Signed a ball for me and thanked me for asking him to do so.

2003-02-19T06:25:00.000-08:00

I think Rickey would fit well in the #2 slot until Drew gets back. Sanders would be OK, but with Eli, Palmeiro, Robinson, et. al. we don't really NEED another OF IMHO.

I don't feel a need for a LH SP. I doubt that this is more than Fassero wanting to recalim his past glory, but if anyone could recycle old LH SPs it would be Dunc. I still think come May 1 we're going to see Finley back for some stupid amount of $.

I used to be all about using a "fireman" in "clutch" relief situations. But I can see the logic from a managers standpoint of using a 9th inning closer. It kind of makes sense if you approach it from the standpoint of the number of innings or outs you need to compete with. If Eck or Izzy or Big Lee Arthur Smith make your 9th inning automatic, you really only have to worry about getting through 8 innings or 24 outs. An analogy would be a chess game where you handicap an opponent by removing a bishop before the game even starts. If you can 95% bank on having that advantage, it certainly helps you adjust your strategy in a positive manner. Therefore, I think for a team that can afford to (and STL is certainly one of those teams) you should have 2 very good relief pitchers, using the best of the two as a fireman, and the next best as a closer...

2003-02-18T13:40:00.000-08:00

I'm surprised that Ochoa is going to Japan, and I must say, a little disappointed. I think he would have done a pretty good job off the bench. However, I'm sure that the Cardinals are even more disppointed than I am. I mean, it's obvious that he knows how to win (see last year's Anaheim Angels for details). And we all know that that's important to the Cardinals (see the signing of Tino Martinez for details).

As far as Rickey is concerned, I'd be open to the Cardinals signing him just for the quotes.

Regarding Isringhausen, I had absolutely NO idea that he had a torn labrum until a few days ago. I mean, I knew he was hurt, and had surgery and all that. But I never saw anything that said what the surgery was repairing. My prediction: Jason Isringhausen spends at least half the season on the DL. As you said Alex, torn labrums aren't something you should mess around with and try to rush back from. (I almost predicted that Izzy would spend more time on the DL this season than Cal Eldred. But, saying something like that is like saying the Titanic is unsinkable)

Re relief strategies: Give me the one that uses your best reliever in the highest leverage innings (7th, 2 on, 1 out, 1 run lead). By having a set "closer", you're really demonstrating poor resource allocation, both with your bullpen as well as your money.

So Jeff Fassero wants to start. Do the Cardinals need a lefthanded starter THAT badly? Sure, by letting Fassero start, that lessens the amount of times La Russa can use his patented lefty vs. lefty matchups. But at the same time, I really don't think they should consider him starting unless he's needed. I don't think his arm would be up for it for more than just a few spot starts.

The Score Bard. Simply genius.

2003-02-17T03:53:00.000-08:00

So it looks like Alex Ochoa is gone to Japan (from Post-Dispatch). Perez did a great job from the right side last year - I am somewhat hesitant to suggest he'll do it again, though. Hey, Reggie Sanders is still out there - and Rickey's begging for a job!

Tony now expects Izzy to be healthy for opening day (P-D again). I hope we won't rush him, a torn labrum isn't to be triffled with.

So Steve and Jason - Which relief strategy do you subscribe to? Use your best reliever as a "fireman" in the 7th with 2 on, 1 out and a 1 run lead, or at the beginning of the 9th with a 3 run lead?

Regarding Finley, oddly enough - he pitched REALLY well last year using his "defense independent pitching statistics" (DIPS). My pet theory is that this is due to the "first time around the league" phenomena more than anything else. Then again, maybe it's Dunc...

Speaking of Gammons, did you see this ?

2003-02-16T19:46:00.000-08:00

Well, it's been a while since I've posted. But, since there hasn't been much of anything that I think is interesting enough to write about (or, much time to write), I haven't felt the need to. However, spring training has started, so posts should be a lot more numerous in the future.

Regarding Chuck Finley, Peter Gammons says that the Red Sox have interest in him. But, since Finley was offered arbitration, signing him would cost Boston their first round pick in June's draft. Come on Theo. Be bold! Take a chance! You KNOW you can never have enough 40 year old starting left-handed pitchers!

In reality, as you've hypothesized Alex, I see the Cardinals signing Finley on May 1st. But, when I look at the collection DL-visits-waiting-to-happen that the Cardinals want to fill out the rotation with, I may actually welcome the Cardinals signing Finley.

It looks like Jason Isringhausen is going to start the season on the DL. Now, I realize that last season, when he was healthy, Izzy was pretty damn good. But, outside of having to pay him a truckload of money just because he's a "closer", is this really a problem? I guess if the rest of the bullpen isn't any good, then it would be. However, if the rest of the bullpen is good, then it's not a problem, because the Cardinals can just take the same approach to finishing games and bullpen management that the Red Sox are taking this season. Which is not having any defined roles for any certain pitcher, including having a set "closer".

42 days until opening day...

2003-02-09T07:23:00.000-08:00

OK, so it's Peter Gammons, but he's threatening a Finley signing May 1. As posts indicate below, it's like our spending is still about $5-$7 mil. short of what I expected us to spend.

Now the fact that I've seen NOBODY rumored to have interest in him concerns me as well. The conspiracist in me thinks:

1.) Finley didn't want a new contract to be part of his divorce with Tawney
2.) STL really wants him back (LH SP)
3.) It's not like he can't work out in Feb/March/April...
4.) We really don't have a viable rotation in terms of IP
5.) We'll start Hamilton and move him to the pen come May 1

Now on the other hand,

1.) STL is still very far from SoCal.
2.) He's old, and maybe he doesn't care
3.) May 1 means that he'll miss a month of the season (but perhaps he doesn't really care about that)

So what do you think? Is there a "handshake" deal with a wink between Walt and Chuck? Given the state of our rotation today, the talent still available just days away from Ps&Cs reporting, would you want Finley come May 1?

Steve, I have to disagree with your Suppan post. My problem with the rotation is that we DON'T have any innings eaters in the sense that we can count on any pitcher currently wearing birds and bats to throw 200IP. Hermanson, Stephenson, Eldred, Hamilton, Ankiel, Tomko, Journell, Carpenter and Williams have all been hurt in the past 24 months. Simontacchi is a sophmore who had never thown that many IPs, and Morris is just 3 years off major injury (that's what, 11 possible starters not counting Tsmith?).

And when you look at the track record (bb/k, gidp#s, GB/FB ratios, projections, etc.) and money spent on this winters signings, none of Hermanson, Eldred, Hamilton, Tomko, and Carpenter seem to be as good of a signing as $1 mill. for Suppan (option year for $4). Of course, Valdez got about that, too, didn't he?

BTW - Steve, of all the Mac browsers, Safari likes the "blogger" interface the best. Interesting, no?

2003-02-03T09:25:00.000-08:00

Well, it's nice to be aboard. I've e-mailed Stephen a couple times. Nice to meet you too Alex. Each of you seems to really know your stuff regarding the Birdos. The Hamilton breakdown was intense. I'll take 18 good games out of every 22 he pitches this year.

I got a chance to see a lot of Palmeiro and Ochoa last season (I'm in L.A.). Nice enough bench players. Orlando started in right some, usually with Salmon at DH. But they couldn't keep Fullmer's bat out of the lineup, so they sacrificed defense and put Salmon out there and let Fullmer DH. I can remember a few timely hits from Palmeiro. They also used him as a pinch-runner quite a few times. I think he's 34 now though.

I have the same feeling you guys have regarding this off-season - the Cards seem to be focusing on quantity rather than quality, and hoping for a diamond in the rough. The big void going into the winter was starting pitching. With several SP's moving, seems like we could have done better than Hamilton, Hermanson, Eldred, et. al.

2003-02-02T09:46:00.000-08:00

Jeff Suppan: Yes, he's an innings eater, and that's about it. Should the Cardinals have taken a flyer on him? Maybe. But when you consider that the Cardinals have Hermanson, Stephenson, Eldred, and Hamilton, I think that that's plenty of inning eaters for the 5th starter slot. At least until Eldred and Hamilton inexplicably find that their arms fall off.

And I saw the Ochoa and Palmeiro signings. When I saw that they had signed Ochoa, I thought "Well, he'll be a decent bat off the bench. Nice signing." When I saw that they had signed Palmeiro, I thought "Well, there goes any hope of improving the bench even more."

But, have you read Transaction Oracle in regards to these signings? Dan Szymborski thought they were good signings, and the people who were posting comments thought they were good signings. The projections for both players look fine for bench guys. Ochoa has a lot more power than Palmeiro, but doesn't get on base as often. I've got more power than Palmeiro does, but he gets on base (or he's projected to) at a decent rate.

Anyway, I like the Ochoa signing. But, I'm not yet sold on the Palmeiro signing.

Have you looked MLB.com lately? For the first time ever, they've done something cool. They've added a live countdown timer for when pitchers and catchers report to spring training. They're going by the Mariners reporting date, so it's 6 days instead of 12 or 13. But overall, the site is still horrible.

2003-02-02T04:40:00.000-08:00

Hey, the more crappy Angels we hire, the better our chance to win the World Series!

We just signed Ochoa and Palmeiro. The bad Palmeiro, obviously.

I actually find the Ochoa signing to be adequate, he's very good for a 4th outfielder and should help when JD "The Next Mickey Mantle" Drew brakes.

2003-02-01T05:34:00.000-08:00

Let's play "Second Guess Walt's Pitching Staff Decisions!"

Signed with the Pirates for $1million '03, $4million '04.

Suppan, Jeff - 2003 ZiPS Projection
-----------------------------------------------
W L G GS IP H ER HR BB SO ERA
-----------------------------------------------
11 12 34 33 213 228 104 26 65 131 4.39

does nothing but eats innings with a nasty curve.

2003-01-28T20:41:00.000-08:00

I do think that Hamilton is going to get some starts. Not only do I think that Hamilton is going to get some starts, but I think that Hermanson is going to get some too. I don't think it's unreasonable to think that they'll both get at least 10 starts each when you consider the 5th spot in their rotation. I think it's reasonable to pencil Morris in for around 225 innings, and Tomko for around 200. I think Simontacchi is good for around 175, and I think some of his starts will be taken by the Hamilton/Hermanson/Stephenson three-headed monster. Woody Williams is too hard to project; he could easily throw 200+ innings, or he could just as easily be hurt for half the season, and log around 100-115. As you said in a previous post Alex, there are a lot of starting innings missing there.

Is it something to worry about? Well, of course it is. But really, there's absolutely NO way the Cardinals could have the same amount of pitching misfortune in 2003 that they had in 2002. It's just not possible. At least it's not possible from an injury point of view. I can see the Cardinals getting very little valuable production out of the 4th and 5th rotation spots. However, I really don't think that will be the case, because I think that portion of the rotation will be just a tad worse than league average. Let me know if you think I'm being too optimistic.

Speaking of league average pitching, why do the Cardinals still have Josh Pearce on the roster instead of Travis Smith? I've looked, and I couldn't find any evidence of Travis Smith still being in the organization. I've written Dan Szymborski to see if he knows anything, but I'm willing to bet that Smith is a free agent now. If that's the case, then was it REALLY necessary to sign Hermanson for between 500k and a million dollars, when Smith could have been had for 300k or less?

Switching gears: Are the owners REALLY dumb enough to do this again? Personally, I don't think so. I think the owners are finally wising up in regards to payroll allocation. I just wish they would wise up when it comes to things like interleague play, the DH, the wild card, etc.

And last, welcome aboard Jason. Alex and I are looking forward to a new perspective, as well as any topics you deem interesting enough to warrant discussing.

2003-01-24T03:54:00.000-08:00

Want to get even more frustrated? The Braves had to send Millwood out because of Maddux/Byrd/Hampton/Ortiz - there was no room for his salary. But the braves got Hampton and Ortiz for very little talent and are paying about $10million for both salaries. Think about how good we'd feel right now if our rotation consisted of Morris, Hampton, Ortiz, Simontacchi, Stephenson, and one more low cost signee like Hermanson. Heck you could throw Joey Hamilton into that and have a pretty good shot.

Steve, do you think if Hamilton has another good spring we'll see him get starts? I was thinking that was our aim, to let him loose a SP job and get sent to the bullpen. And then I saw this interesting post from Jmodene on Primer (thanks Jmodene for the reprint):

"Speaking of Joey Hamilton, I took a closer look at how his 2002 season progressed through his injuries and his conversation to relief pitcher:

A few pleasant surprises, considering that overall he went 4-10 with a 5.27 ERA. You'd think he'd had a truly lousy season, but that's not *exactly* the case.

Here we go.

Hamilton, as has been previously noted, started off the 2002 season as Cincinnati's Opening Day starter.

In his first six starts, Hamilton went 2-1 with 3 no-decisions, allowing 37 hits and 12 runs (11 earned) in 38 innings (average 6 1/3 innings per start). He posted Game Scores of 43, 62, 53, 45, 49, and 72 (average GS 54.0) and his ERA was 2.65.

Then on May 6, Hamilton got hurt - hamstring - and had to leave the game after having allowed 5 hits and 3 runs in 3 1/3 innings vs. Milwaukee.

He went on the DL for a couple of weeks and came back 18 days later, on May 24 - whereupon he was pounded by Atlanta, pitched 6 scoreless innings against Florida, then got pounded again by St. Louis and Anaheim. He had three more decent outings (2 runs each vs. Pittsburgh, Seattle, and the Cubs) before giving up 10 runs in his next 9 innings against Houston and Milwaukee.

In that Milwaukee game on July 7, Hamilton reaggravated the hammy and this time went on the DL for a month, not pitching again until August 7, when he came off the DL and got pounded for 7 runs (6 earned) in 4 1/3 against Colorado.

In those 11 games in 3 months, commencing with the May 7 Milwaukee game and ending with the August 7 Colorado game, Hamilton allowed 69 hits and 49 runs (45 earned) in 53 innings (ERA 7.59). His control actually got a little better - 30 K's and 17 walks - but his Game Scores were 38, 24, 64, 33, 4, 40, 17, 64, 32, 28, and 27 (average GS of 35.6).

By that time, the Reds had Ryan Dempster and Shawn Estes on board (not that they did any better) and they put Hamilton into the bullpen.

Whereupon things began to change.

He allowed 3 hits and 0 runs in his first three relief appearances (5 innings) then got pounded for 4 runs in 2/3 inning vs. Houston on August 17 and 2 runs in 0 innings against Arizona on August 20.

He then reeled off 5 straight scoreless appearances (8 1/3 innings, 4 hits, including two games - 5 1/3 innings, 2 hits, 6 K's, no walks against St. Louis) before the Cards hit him for 3 runs in 2/3 inning in their third look at Hamilton-the-reliever on September 4.

Then two more scoreless appearances and a 1-run-in-2-innings hold vs. Pittsburgh.

Then a 5-runs-in-1 2/3 innings-pounding by the Cubs on September 12, followed by 4 more scoreless appearances, then two runs in his final three appearances (5 innings).

Hamilton got hit hard in only 4 of his 22 relief appearances; he was unscored on in 15 relief appearances and allowed 1 run in each of the other three. Overall, he finished 1-2, with 1 save, 1 blown save, and 4 holds in 34 innings, allowing 32 hits and 17 runs, all earned. 29 K and only 10 BB. ERA 4.50.

But that's misleading, because in 4 of those games, he allowed 14 runs in 3 innings (ERA 42.00), allowing 15 hits, striking out 4 and walking 4. His two relief losses and one blown save came in those four games.

In the other 18 games, he allowed 3 runs in 31 innings (ERA 0.88) with a win, a save, and four holds; he allowed 17 hits in those 31 innings, striking out 25 and walking only 6.

Against the Cards, BTW, he was hit for 6 runs in 5 innings on June 4 as a starter (this was post-injury, though) and then he made three relief appearances, throwing 3 innings of two-hit, no-walk scoreless ball against us on August 27 and 2 1/3 perfect innings against us on September 2, before we hit him for 2 hits, a walk, and 3 runs (sounds like the bullpen allowed those runs to score) on September 4.

So what does all this mean?

First of all, it means the Reds probably rushed Hamilton back way too soon after the first hamstring. He had gotten off to a terrific start to the season before getting hurt but struggled and was inconsistent, at best, when he came back - before reaggravating the hammy and missing another month.

Second, once Hamilton was moved to relief, he was very good indeed - the overall ERA doesn't show it (4.50) but 18 good games out of 22 relief appearances is *very* impressive. However, one must temper one's enthusiasm in that when Hamilton was bad in relief (those four games) he was *very* bad. He didn't just get hit, he got shellacked.

Still, 18 good games and 4 bad games is a good ratio.

So, I can see why Bowden was quoted as saying he didn't want to let Hamilton go, but just couldn't afford to keep him - because Hamilton *did* do very well indeed in relief. And as such, I now think he may actually be ready to be considered the replacement for not Hackman... but for Mike Timlin - who if you think about it had a rather similar record for the Cards - when he was good, he was very very good, but occasionally he'd just be awful.

The hard part is going to be determining when Hamilton is having one of his awful games and get him out of there post-haste.

But I'm really starting, having taken this closer look at him, to think that Joey Hamilton will indeed be a valuable member of the Cardinals' bullpen in 2003.

And I'm even wondering... despite the Hermanson signing and the hoped-for comeback by Garrett Stephenson... if Hamilton might not yet be in contention for that fifth starter spot, given how well he was pitching as a starter before he injured that hamstring. But I don't want to go that far just yet; suffice to say that Hamilton was a good relief pitcher in 2002."

"

2003-01-23T14:20:00.000-08:00

I don't mind the Hermanson signing. No, he wouldn't have been my first choice of bargain-bin pitchers to sign (that would have been Ismael Valdez). But, since there are quite a few question marks regarding the Cardinals starting rotation, they have to do SOMETHING to address the problem.

While I'm convinced the Cardinals could have afforded Kevin Millwood if they had traded for him, they still need arms. And I'm of the mind (as you know), that out of quantity comes quality. So, I think signing guys like Hermanson to contracts of around a million dollars or so equates to low-risk, decent upside, yet cheap deals. I wouldn't have a problem if they signed about 3 more guys like Hermanson. I would rather the Cardinals sign guys like that than a guy who is less than a year removed from having a torn labrum repaired (Chris Carpenter).

2003-01-22T13:02:00.000-08:00

How 'bout that Dustin Hermansen, eh?

ugh...

2003-01-16T20:30:00.000-08:00

Okay class, pull out your math books. It's time for our math lesson for the day.

Take 3.3 million, 7 million, 1.5 million, 500,000, 500,000, 780,000, and add them all together. Now, what's the result?

That's 13,580,000. Now, can somebody, ANYBODY explain to me why the Cardinals couldn't have offered the Braves a bucket of balls for Kevin Millwood? That 13 million and change doesn't include the money that the Cardinals were seriously considering burning on Chuck Finley. So, again, I have to ask, why isn't Kevin Millwood a Cardinal? It certainly isn't because they couldn't afford him.

2003-01-08T15:49:00.000-08:00

What do I think of Hamilton and Levine? Let's see:

Hamilton is probably 5 pitches away from his arm falling completely off.

Levine right around league average I would say. And I think the only reason why the Cardinals had any interest in him whatsoever is because he's left-handed (2 lefties in the bullpen just wasn't enough), he's 34 (will be 35 in May), and he now knows how to win. Well, that's 3 reasons. But, I like the acquisition of Levine a LOT better than the Hamilton signing. I just see a TON of innings coming up this season where 3 or 4 pitching changes are made in the 7th and 8th innings. In other words, if I'm not pulling out my hair because of the upcoming Parade of 1,000 Relievers, then I'll be banging my head against the closest wall.

Yay! No Chuck Finley!

I did see that top 150 prospects report, and was surprised to see that we had 3 pitchers on it. Although I was glad to see that, I don't like having only pitchers on such a list. I'd much rather have good hitting position players on it, especially when you consider how the Cardinals philosophy regarding pitching the last few years has been.

Okay, now it's on to the required Hall of Fame discussion. First, I fully agree that Eddie Murray and Gary Carter belong, and it's about time Carter got in. Second, I'm VERY surprised that Ryne Sandberg didn't get more support. Although I think he will eventually make it (as I think he should), I figured he would get more than just 49%.

Also, congrats to the members of the BBWAA who didn't vote for Andre Dawson. But at the same time, I'd like to know what's keeping Bert Blyleven out. Does he kick puppies? Does he take candy from babies? I don't know, I just don't understand what the writers aren't seeing that I am.

Lastly, what do you think?

Also, thanks for the congrats! Now it's my turn to find something else. Talk to you soon.

2003-01-07T20:35:00.000-08:00

I was waiting to see what you thought of Hamilton/Levine.

Frankly, I think we're still a 170 IP short (and woohoo! after tomorrow we can't sign Finley). I thought it was weird that the ESPN article mentioned Cal Eldred as a 5th starter, I'd see him more like insurance in Memphis.

The big difference between this year and last I think is Kile. At this point, we're counting on Williams, Tomko, Simontacchi, Stephenson, Eldred, and later Chris Carpenter to make up roughly 800 IP. It COULD happen. Walt has said he knows we need one more SP, but I'm a little afraid they're hoping Joey Hamilton will have another surprising spring and "win" that 5th spot.

I guess I like Levine for less than $1mil more than I like resigning Veres for the $2+ CHI(N) gave him - but it's not like we have KRod or anything. I was hoping we'd sign Rick White - but really it might be beneficial to put a kid in the pen than sign another dime a dozen reliever, and White is nominally above replacement.

Did you see the FoxSports top 150 prospects? We had 3 pitchers! We had better prospects than either the Reds or Astros! WooHoo!
Long may our NL Central dominance continue!

I actually hope Journell is fully recovered and is available when any number of tired old arms break in June/July. I'd like to see him get some starts.

Completely unrelated, congrats to the Triplett household on the recent career success!

2003-01-07T09:22:00.000-08:00

I FINALLY have a day off. So, let's discuss.

Outside of Matt Morris, Jason Isringhausen (despite the money he's being paid), and possibly Steve Kline and Mike Crudale, could you tell me what there is to like about the Cardinals pitching staff? I'm having a hard time finding some positives that I feel will carry over into 2003, especially now that Joey Hamilton has officially been acquired. I guess Al Levine now "knows how to win", so that's some explanation for his signing. I don't know though.

I read somebody's post on one of the Primer threads (I think it was in the Joey Hamilton signing thread) that said that because the state of the Cardinals pitching, that the Astros are the team to beat in the NL Central. I remember thinking that last year, and we all saw what happened. But really, is this pitching staff that Walt has put together really any better than average? Are we seeing the "lite" version of the 2000 Texas Rangers? "Who cares if our pitching isn't that good. Our offense is great, so we can just pummel everybody to death."

The offense is fine, but that pitching worries me. What do you think Alex?

2002-12-30T20:08:00.000-08:00

Frankie Goes To Toronto - I like the heck out of him, and wish we hadn't spent money on Matheny and Girardi so that we could sign him. $2.25 million's relatively cheap for a guy who can fill in the Paquette/McEwing role but actually hit, and I would hope take over 2b when Vina wants more than $4 million to have an average OBP at the top of the lineup. I would've signed him, played him in RF until Drew came back, and then used Vina as trade bait at the deadline. Oh well, JP's a smart one.

Little Cruz - Before we got Edmonds, I was hoping STL would make a run at him. Turns out the Jays did and he seems just a bit above replacement at the peak of his ability. At this point I think that Jr. Cruz will go where he can get 500 ABs still, at least that's what I'd do if I were he. I wouldn't be surprised at all if he went to BALT or Tampa and went bust, he's been pretty average with some good, if not great hitters protecting him.

Yankees - Actually, this situation makes me upset that we've spent all this money on broken, average pitching. (Ignoring the danger of repeating myself) It looks like we had about $22 million or so to spend this winter, and no SP outside of Morris, Simontacchi and Stephenson. We signed Woody for ~$7mil, offered chuck $8 and gave broken Chris Carpenter $3. When Finley turned us down, we then gave $4 to Tomko. Now ignore the fact that for essentially $16mil, a backup catcher and a middle reliever we could have had Hampton and Millwood - but the Yankees at this point have, like, eleventeen starting pitchers.

You can bet that the Cuban, Clemens, Wells, and Moose will all make the rotation for various (in)valid reasons. That leaves Pettite, Weaver, El Duque, and Hitchcock as SP "battling" for a spot. With Godzilla now signed, Mondesi/RonDL White are now $17 million worth of 4th outfielders.

Now I don't know if anyone's mentioned this yet, but JD Drew is out until June, maybe longer (I've heard "career threatening"). It would seem that STL, had we had some of that aforementioned $22million still laying around, could've put a pretty neat package of twigs and bark together for Pettite or Weaver and eat some Mondi-White money to have a RF/4th OF depending on Drew's knee. THEN it would be cool to find scrap heap-ers like Tomko/Carpenter to fill in the Williams/Finley/Benes/Kile voids.

Looking at the bright side, though - Valdez is still unsigned (of course we'd rather give Joey Hamstring $1.5 mil).

2002-12-30T19:16:00.000-08:00

Well, so much for signing Frankie-C. I'll be interested in seeing where the Blue Jays play him, because according to one of the posters on Primer, his shoulder can't handle playing third base. And since his shoulder can't handle third base, then you know there's no realistic way that it could be expected to handle right field. Of course, there's always second base. But, that's Orlando Hundson's position. And he can't exactly DH because that's what Josh Phelps will most likely do (unless JP wants to move him back to catcher, so he can win the AL Tony La Russa award by having 4 catchers on his roster). If I was Carlos Tosca though, I wouldn't complain. I'd find a place to play him.

What do you think of what the Yankees are doing? This is probably a sacrilege, but I actually like it. Let them buy up all the free agents; I don't care. I don't care for two reasons:

1) George is, for the most part, telling Bud Selig where he can stick his precious CBA. I mean, I liken this to a parent telling their child not to touch the expensive, extremely valuable antique. When that parent tells their child not to touch that expensive, extremely valuable antique, what's the first thing that child does when Mom and Dad aren't looking? They touch it of course. Baseball is telling George that he can't spend what he wants to without dire consequences. So what does he do? He spends more than he did before.

And really, the CBA has done exactly what a Primer poster said a few days ago. While the CBA was clearly drawn up to stop the Yankees from spending so much money, the only thing it's really done is stop all the other teams from spending so much money. The Yankees don't care, because they can afford whatever they want. And I think it's great that the CBA is backfiring.

2) The fairy tale can't last forever. The Yankees are bound to fall, and I can't help but think that the more they spend, the harder that fall is going to be.

Good news! The Cardinals still haven't signed Joey Hamilton or Chuck Finley.

One last thing. Alex, do you think that the longer he goes unsigned, the cheaper the Cardinals could sign Jose Cruz Jr?

2002-12-25T18:04:00.000-08:00

First, and most importantly, Merry Christmas to you and your family Alex. May the upcoming year be better and more productive for you than the one we're about to finish.

Now, I'd love to see the Cardinals sign Catalanotto. He'd be a big asset off the bench, and he does have the super-sub quality that La Russa loves so much. But, I'm not sure that I'd want him as the everyday second baseman. As you said, he's not as good with the glove as Vina is. In fact, when you look at his Baseball Reference page, you get a glimpse of his defensive prowess at second base. It's not pretty.

But the question is, would his offense be enough to make up for his second base defense? Well, it would have to be if you want him playing everyday. He can play left field, but he's blocked there by Pujols. Cat's arm may not be good enough for right field, so if needed, Pujols can be moved to right to make room for Frank. But, the problem with playing Catalanotto everyday as a corner outfielder is that he doesn't hit well enough to justify it. So, do you play him as a good bat/mediocre (at best) glove at second base, or do you play him as an average bat/average glove in the outfield? It's a problem I'd like to see the Cardinals have, because I like his bat.

"Sure, Millwood was a dump, but think about it this way. We had some money to spend. We gave $3mill to Carpenter, the same (about) to Tomko and were talking $8million for Finley."

This is one of the reasons I like you Alex. You see things that I don't. I didn't take into account the money the team almost burned by signing Finley, and the money that I feel the team burned by signing Chris Carpenter. And all things considered, I'd rather have Millwood at 10 million than Finley and Carpenter for 10. I'm still holding out hope that the Cardinals see what a folly it would be in signing Joey Hamilton, and instead, take the road that leads to Rick Helling or Ismael Valdez (I hate the Astros for re-signing Shane Reynolds).

Now that I think more about Cruz Jr, the more I think the Cardinals should try to sign him to a cheap contract as well. He can play until JD is healthy, and if he's cheap, then the team can trade him at the deadline for some pitching or a 6th catcher that they'll desperately need.

Although I question some of the things done this offseason, I think the trade for Tomko makes up for a lot of it (except for the Girardi signing). And yes, I think Walt has done a good job. I just hope that the next players he signs or acquires will be because they can actually play, and not because they're "Proven Veterans With a Great Clubhouse Presence" (TM).

2002-12-25T12:37:00.000-08:00

MERRY CHRISTMAS!!!

2002-12-22T10:42:00.000-08:00

It's Heresy, but signing Catalanotto would open up Vina for a trade. Really, his OBP is much, much higher. He's not as good with the glove, nor is he likely faster in the 40, but I'd rather have him at the top of the lineup, by far.

Sure, Millwood was a dump, but think about it this way. We had some money to spend. We gave $3mill to Carpenter, the same (about) to Tomko and were talking $8million for Finley. We also gave Woody $8million (I'm not even going to count the $ wasted on Girardi). Now for about ~$20 million, what would you rather have? Williams, Finley and Tomko or Carpenter, or Millwood, Hampton ($16million) and Helling/Valdez. Walt's done a good job, there's extenuating circumstances (trades and deadlines, etc.) and sure it's 20/20 hindsight, but durnit - Morris, Millwood, Hampton, Helling, Simontacchi/Stephenson would've been nice.

I'd love to see us get Cruz, Jr. and play him until JD gets back, but, you know, Frankie C. does fit the LaRussa mold - 2b, 3b, OF, 1b - he can play the place and get on base.

2002-12-20T21:55:00.000-08:00

It pains me to see Millwood get traded for a bucket of batting practice balls, but when you consider that he's expected to get 10 million in arbitration, I can see why the Cardinals didn't get involved. So yeah, it's entirely possible that the Cardinals could go after the highly-sought after prize known as Joey Hamilton.

But, I see a bright side. Non-tenders. Some of them are actually pretty good. If the Cardinals are worried about getting somebody for the bullpen, how about Kerry Lightenberg? Need a good bat off the bench? Sign Frank Catalanotto. How about Jose Cruz Jr. if you need a decent corner outfield bat?

Now, I don't really see a need for Cruz on the Cardinals. But, I think Lightenberg and Frankie-C (especially Catalanotto) would be welcome additions. Because of the offensive offense of Joe Girardi off the bench, the Cardinals REALLY need a good bat for the late innings. Even more so now because of Girardi's ricidulous addition to the roster.

So, what is the likelihood of actually signing some of the guys on the non-tender list that are actually good? Considering that the Cardinals signed Tino, Girardi, and tried (still trying) to sign Chuck Finley, I'd say not very high. But, I guess until Walt signs Joey Hamilton, we can always hope.

As for Cal Eldred, it can't hurt. At least not any more than his elbow *grins*. Anyway, he's another arm that the Cardinals might be able to call on if needed during the season. And as you said, he was signed cheaply. A move that has more upside than risk.

2002-12-20T18:12:00.000-08:00

LESSONS IN VALUE

Today the D-Rays released 3 RH SP. Thing is, at least Wilson is 90% as good as Tomko and Carpenter, and better than Joey Hamilton (PLEASE DON'T WALT, PLEASE).

BTW- Notice that Hampton and Millwood have been dealt this year for nothing, literally nothing? We needed all the pitching we could get....

2002-12-19T08:13:00.000-08:00

I'd love to see "Smokey" don the tools of ignorance once more!

We don't have to worry about Timlin, at $1.85 million, boy-genius in Boston can have him. At about half of that, I'd still feel like we overpaid.

Maybe all Pearce needs if for Dunc to teach him an out-pitch. Sure, it'll break his arm 350 innings from now, but why not? All it means is a lost year and Tommy John surgery!

How big is the pile of money we're throwing at the Ex-Cub Club? $2million total? Why not, it's not like we're going to save it for next year, or it's going to make any difference in what Walt's goal is for now until the end of the year. I thought if Mr. Kittaen doesn't accept our offer by end of day, we can't talk to him until May 1, ala Andy Benes circa 1997.

Speaking of throwing away some money, I actually like the Eldred invite! No, really, the worst case is we waste some lunch money and a AAA spot on him. The best case is that his arm is good enough to last until June for Carpenter and he eats a few innings. Why not?!

Really, the fact that we're carrying 8 (9 if you include Ankiel) pitchers with double digit single season win totals makes me feel like we aren't really comfortable with the health of any of them outside of Morris.

2002-12-18T19:58:00.000-08:00

"THE HUGE GAPING HOLE IN THE RIGHT SIDE OF OUR BULLPEN"

I don't know about you, but I'm more concerned about the huge, gaping hole at catcher. Won't Walt PLEASE sign another one? I don't think 4 is enough (I can't help but think of Marrero as a catcher still).

Talking about bullpens though, isn't it a little easier to build one than most people think? It seems to me that every year, there's some team that just throws out a bunch of scrubs that nobody has ever heard of before, and it turns out to be a pretty good 'pen. Just sign a bunch of arms, use spring training to see who sinks and who swims, and go from there. Out of a certain quantity, you're bound to find some quality.

I do think though, that as you've pointed out, the Cardinals have good bullpen candidates in Crudale (he showed it last year), Travis Smith, and Gabe Molina. I think the jury is still out on Josh Pearce. I remember watching Pearce last season. He had a lot of problems finishing off hitters. He seemed to get them to a 2 strike count relatively easily, but he just didn't have what he needed to get the guys out. That could have been any number of things; lack of command, lack of confidence, lack of experience. While not a barnburner by any stretch of the imagination, I don't think the Cardinals should give up on him.

If they are going to sign somebody else (which, depending on who it is, definitely couldn't hurt), I think they should take a look at either Loiza, Acevedo, or Tavarez (my choice would probably be Loiza). Acevedo pitched decently last year (although he did pitch in Comerica), Loiza can start if needed (Dave Duncan might be able to teach him something), and Tavarez probably has the best stuff out of the three (but man is he a knucklehead).

I wouldn't mind seeing Timlin back, but I'm not sure if the Cardinals can afford him. Which is a shame, because they're burning a big pile of money on Joe Girardi and Jeff Fasserro, and almost (and still could) burned a whole truckload of money on Chuck Finley.

Jimmy Anderson. Don't ask me why, because I won't be able to answer you, but I like him. No, he hasn't been good at all, and that's certainly not a function of the team he played for. I don't know if it's because he's unwilling to learn/follow instructions, poor mechanics, or he just doesn't have what it takes. But really, what would it hurt to take a slight risk on him and sign him to a minor league deal with an NRI. If he turns out to be as bad in Memphis as he was in Pittsburgh, well, you tried. But, if he turns out to at least be servicable, then you've helped yourself in two ways: got a servicable pitcher for yourself, and kept somebody else from getting him.

All that being said, I really think that the pitching staff will be fine. There's really no way that it will be torn apart like it was last season, so things should look pretty good in that area. I just hope that Mike LaValliere doesn't decide to come out of retirement

2002-12-17T06:57:00.000-08:00

THE HUGE GAPING HOLE IN THE RIGHT SIDE OF OUR BULLPEN

The departures of Hackman, White, and Veres leaves a very big hole in the bullpen, or does it? The Post-Dispatch talks about how we apparently have a problem that they suggest we're trying to fill with Joey Hamilton.

I have 2 thoughts about this. 1.) At times in their careers, Hackman, White and Veres were good, very good. Last year, a half a season from White was about the only thing to write home about. If we pursue another starter - as Walt admits, that would potentially leave us with Morris, Williams, Tomko, Stephenson, Simontacchi, Carpenter, and this other starter. Granted Carpenter won't be available until after the all star break, but at that point we'll have 7 guys who have all won at least double digits at some point. I do applaud the depth of rotation strategy, but between Crudale, Travis Smith, Pearce and Gabe Molina, I would suggest that we might not need to do much to fill the RH RP role, and it would be better to either take stress off one of the fragile starters by inserting them into this role, or give big league innings to Journell, Pearce, or Smith.

However, there is something to having another Proven Veteran™ in the pen. There are closers and former closers available - Urbina, Jackson, etc... guys who failed as closers - Ascevedo, Timlin, - and failed starters like Hamilton, Esteban Loiza, and Julian Tavarez. My personal preference would be to bring back Timlin, or sign the RHP with the best fastball (Tavarez?).

ABOUT THAT 7TH STARTER

Though we hope for a Helling/Valdez type, I'm willing to bet we end up with a LHP: Kent Mercker, Jimmy Anderson, or, Shawn Estes.

Steve, I very much like your idea of giving Jimmy Anderson a minor league contract. He seems like the kind of guy that Duncan could work with. He's a soft-tossing lefty who, when he has "command", is on. When he doesn't have his control, he sucks. It would almost be worth giving money to Estes, but signing Anderson for a flyer.

2002-12-16T10:52:00.000-08:00

I know you liked Hackman, but I think that this is a very good trade for the Cardinals. They got something they need (a starter) for something they could replace fairly easily (a reliever). I think with Dave Duncan, good run support, and a good defense behind him, Tomko can win between 12 and 15 games in 2003. The usual health caveats apply.

Was it really necessary to sign Tino?

2002-12-16T06:13:00.000-08:00

Living in Ohio, I do tend to follow the Reds. Tomko never really got along with McKeon, Bowden/McKeon openly described him as a head case, and you really have to wonder about a pitcher that Don Gullet couldn't work with.

That being said, Tomko's career numbers are just fine. I think he's a better pickup than Caprenter, and the fact that we were able to get him for Hackman, I think, should be regarded as a coup for Walt. If we get one more pitcher (Finley) we'll have 7 potential starters which is pretty good depth.

However, I will miss Luther, who, a year ago, was one of the top 5 relievers in the game. He was one of my favorite Cardinals.

2002-12-13T23:37:00.000-08:00

Yeah, we got Finley, too.

Good news! As of this writing, the Cardinals actually haven't signed Finely, and it's possible that they won't.

Alas, they probably will though. They seem hell-bent on signing him, without considering younger, healthy options.

2002-12-13T10:14:00.000-08:00

Yeah, we got Finley, too. This sucks. It's like opening your presents at Christmas and finding all socks and sweaters. At least the 'Stros/Cubs/Reds aren't really improving themselves, either.
*sigh*

2002-12-12T21:44:00.000-08:00

This is shaping up to be a terrible offseason.

Now, I know that the Cardinals need pitching, which is why they did in fact, sign Chris Carpenter (1 year, for a million plus incentives, and an option for 2004). But, doesn't it make a lot more sense to sign pitchers that can, you know, actually pitch? And considering how bad off payroll-wise the team supposedly is, why would you intentionally throw ANY money at a player who you KNOW is hurt, and might not even throw a single pitch for you? Can ANYBODY explain the reasoning behind this?

Joe Girardi. What, is having two catchers on your roster that can't hit not enough? So, not only did they waste a valuable roster spot by signing Torrealba, but the Cardinals might waste ANOTHER one by signing Joe Girardi. Now, I know that Eli Marrero is now Tony La Russa's mandatory super-sub, but come on, HE CAN STILL CATCH. Besides, if something drastic happens, what's wrong with either:

1) signing a catcher when the need arises (in the offseason when you already enough catchers doesn't qualify), or better yet,

2) using that wonderful thing they call the minor leagues and calling up Keith McDonald?

Seriously, if anybody can explain Tony La Russa's love/need for unnecessary players on his roster, I'll give you $100.

I'm too irritated to post anything else, so I'm finished for now.

2002-12-12T09:41:00.000-08:00

NOT WHAT I WAS HOPING FOR:

"The club closed its financial gap on a one-year contract with free-agent lefthander Chuck Finley on Wednesday and may be within one round of negotiations of retaining the 200-game winner it acquired last July from the Cleveland Indians. "

" The Cardinals also are pursuing Toronto Blue Jays free-agent righthander Chris Carpenter , a career 49-50 pitcher in six American League seasons and a potential swing man for the Redbirds late next season. "

and finally, the worst yet ->

"The Cardinals also will press their pursuit of Chicago Cubs free agent Joe Girardi as the backup to catcher Mike Matheny. They'll also continue to search for outfield depth and low-priced relief help. Both commodities will become more plentiful after Dec. 20, the deadline for teams to offer contracts. "

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!

Okay, I like Lieber as an idea, but he turned down guaranteed $500k with incentives for a total of $7mil over 2 years from the cubs. For someone who may not pitch next year because of surgery, that sounds like a very good deal and would hate to see us offer more.

I'd really like to see us look at carrying 6 pitchers into the spring with Morris, Williams, Simontacchi - Carpenter, Finley and Stephenson wouldn't be a terrible end to the rotation, but certainly there could be better options. Leiber would make a nice #3 in 2004 behind Morris and Williams.

I half hope we do sign Finley, because I'm scared what we'd do if the Phils do get him. Who knows how much panic we'd go into because we don't have a LH SP?

What could we possibly put together in a package for Colon (let alone Vasquez or Vidro)? Everyone (CBSSportsline says even the Marlins) are putting together packages. We're just not that competitive.

Over at Primer there's a thread about Pujols for Vlad. That'd be pretty stupid, IMHO.

Really, the saving grace is that apart from the Braves, I don't think any NL team would be able to put together something out of the MTL leftovers that would make them hypercomptetitive. If the rotation holds, we should be able to win 90 games again.

2002-12-10T10:10:00.000-08:00

For some reason, having Hackman and Stephenson compete for the 5th starter slot worries me. Like you, I'd rather have a combination of Helling, Valdez, Castillo, Trachsel, or Estes than Finley. And for 7 million dollars, you could have at least two of those guys. I was disappointed when I found out that the Astros signed Shane Reynolds.

But, there may be hope. According to Jayson Stark, the Phillies are interested in Chuck Finley. There is a cloud to that silver lining though. He also says that the Cardinals are interested in Jon Lieber. Now, Lieber is/was a fine pitcher. But he wouldn't be back until midseason at the earliest because of his elbow surgery. I'm not sure how wise it is to intentionally sign a player who is coming off a serious injury that may not be able to help you in the season that you sign him.

Oh, and before I forget, and because it's a pretty hot topic, here is my ballot for the Hall of Fame: Gary Carter, Ryne Sandberg, Eddie Murray, Alan Trammel, Rich Gossage, Tommy John, and Bert Blyleven. No analysis on why; there's enough already out there. For instance, here's Aaron Gleeman's picks and analysis for the Hall of Fame candidates.

2002-12-08T10:50:00.000-08:00

From the Finley arbitration offer on STLToday.com,

"The loss of Wright means the Cardinals probably will throw open the competition for fifth starter to Garrett Stephenson and Luther Hackman. "

Assuming Finley goes for what we offer (and why not - who else is going to give him the $7mil we're going to throw away on him), that gives us Morris, Woody, Finley, Simontacchi and Stephenson.

All I can say is that we better pray for health. I'd still feel a lot better if we spent $2 mil or so on Helling, Valdez, Castillo, et. al.... Of course, rather than give Finley $7mill, I would have gone for Trachsel and Estes ...

2002-12-06T14:35:00.000-08:00

Of course, adding Thome and Bell won't guarantee them anything. For all we know, Thome could tear an ACL in spring training and Bell could tear the rotator cuff in his throwing shoulder. But, by focusing on Thome, instead of say, Glavine, the Phillies were able to improve their everyday lineup, while at the same time, giving their fans something else to see everyday, instead of every 5th day.

Again, we don't know if it will be enough. But, I think it's a step in the right direction when you consider the rest of the NL East. The Braves lost have lost a couple parts of their pitching staff (Glavine and Mike Remlinger), and still have holes at third, first, and catcher. And the Mets haven't done anything at all to fix what was their biggest problem last year: their offense. Now, Burnitz and Alomar probably won't be as bad as they were last year. Despite that, rebounds by those two players won't be enough for the Mets to score enough runs to be competitive.

So, while the Phillies might have benefitted more from signing players other than Thome and Bell, I think there's a greater than zero chance that we'll see a new team at the top of the NL East at the end of the regular season in 2003.

2002-12-05T18:49:00.000-08:00

RE: PHIL

Runs Scored : 710
Runs Scored Upon : 724

This is what I was getting at. Remind me how throwing all this money to increase SLG% in the 3-6 spots is going to ensure even a wild card birth?

2002-12-05T18:39:00.000-08:00

Notes:

The thing that jumps out at me first is Rick Helling. If I had to Rank 'em -

Trachsel - Very good numbers (@ Shea, I grant you)
Moyer - Best numbers but he's old, and I don't think he'll leave SEA
Valdez - Those darn blisters!
Helling - Would be interested in what park - adjusted would look like
Reynolds (injury wild card - He could be anywhere from here up to the #1 spot)
Daal - Dodger stadium, granted, but I think he can pitch
D'Amico 26! Doesn't it seem like he's been around forever?
Estes - Slow, Wild, Check out 160.2 IPs 171 Hits 83 BB 109 Ks - not a good ratio
Castillo Kind of a bummer year, but likely cheaper and higher upside than Wright
Finley - Old, and I'd hate to see what the NL will do to him 2nd time around the league
Wright - What is there to like? I would have left him off this list, like Baldwin, Parris, et. al. but Walt keeps making noise about giving him starts. Most discouraging is his BB/K ratio

2002-12-05T18:29:00.000-08:00

Your Free Agent Pitchers of Note:

Frank Castillo
36 23 0 0 163.1 174 101 92 19 58 112 6 15 1 96.1 .274 5.07

Jamie Moyer
4 34 4 2 230.2 198 89 85 28 50 147 13 8 0 100.9 .230 3.32

Ismael Valdez
31 31 1 0 196.0 194 94 91 26 47 102 8 12 0 95.9 .257 4.18

Rick Helling
0 30 0 0 175.2 180 94 88 31 48 120 10 12 0 92.5 .264 4.51
$3 mil

Shawn Estes
29 29 1 1 160.2 171 94 91 13 83 109 5 12 0 93.2 .281 5.10
$6.5 mil

Shane Reynolds
13 13 0 0 74.0 80 43 40 13 26 47 3 6 0 90.3 .274 4.86
$6.5 mil

Omar Daal
39 23 0 0 161.1 142 73 70 20 54 105 11 9 0 85.6 .239 3.90
(LA numbers) $4.5 mil

D'Amico (26 yr. old)
29 22 1 1 145.2 152 84 80 20 37 101 6 10 0 93.0 .267 4.94
$1.8 mil

Steve Trachsel
30 30 1 1 173.2 170 80 65 16 69 105 11 11 0 94.6 .258 3.37
$3.5 mil

Finley
18 18 1 0 105.1 114 56 52 6 48 91 4 11 0 98.4 .284 4.44
14 14 1 1 85.1 69 41 36 7 30 83 7 4 0 95.9 .219 3.80

Jamey Wright
23 22 1 1 129.1 130 80 76 17 75 77 7 13 0 94.4 .269 5.29
$3.5 mil

2002-12-04T22:18:00.000-08:00

I guess now that I think about it, I haven't really commented on what the Phillies are doing. By signing Thome, they're able to boost the lineup with a legitimate power bat while at the same time, give the team a big name for people to pay to come see. By signing David Bell, they're able to get a good defensive third baseman and upgrade second base at the same time. Because with Bell at third, the Phillies are able to move Polanco to second in place of Marlon Anderson, which is both an offensive and defensive upgrade.

Now, will signing Bell and Thome really help? Well, I consider Bell/Thome to be superior to Rolen/Lee, superior to Polanco/Lee, and a wash with Rolen/Giambi. So, their lineup is upgraded, at least from what it was once they traded Rolen to the good guys. But you do have a point when you wonder if there should be more of a focus on OBP in the 1 and 2 slots. Because the middle of the Phillies lineup is a monster (Abreu, Burrell, and Thome), they will need to have somebody who can get on base at a better clip than .316 (Rollins' career OBP) and .333 (Polanco's career OBP) in the 1 and 2 spots. Of course, as somebody pointed out in one of the Primer Clutch Hits threads, the burden is lessened if Larry Bowa bats Abreu second. Then they only have to figure out how to get Jimmy Rollins on base at least 37% of the time in front of him.

Will that by itself be enough for the Phiiles to keep things interesting like they did in 2001? I don't know, because it's too early to tell. But, while this may not translate into the success that the Phillies are intending, I don't see a train-wreck-waiting-to-happen like I did with the Mets the last offseason.

"Well, If there's one LaRussa stereotype that I'll readily admit to him being guilty of, it's his love for McEwing/Paquette/Marrero/Cairo types who can play more than one position."

This is the one thing scares me if the Cardinals trade Vina for Ortiz. If they do that, then Cairo will be the new second baseman. So, that will leave La Russa with no super-subs on the bench. That could lead to Walt Jocketty doing something dumb, like signing Luis Alicea. Somebody hold me please; I'm scared.

You do have a point as to what could be La Russa's reasoning behind not having Marrero catch regularly. I'd rather get Marrero 450 ABs from all over the field, instead of having his bat suffer because he's tired after catching 100 games. In fact, now that I think about it, La Russa might be willing to subject Mike Matheny to the brunt of the catching duties because he knows that Matheny will be crummy whether he's tired or not.

Re: Cardinals salary. This is almost impossible to calculate. You have buyout money going to Benes, Veres, and DiFelice. You have deferral money going to Benes, Edmonds, and Lord knows who else. You have money going to Flynn Kile (unless that's already been paid. I still don't understand the reasoning behind her getting the rest of Darryl's contract dollars). And I think you're correct when you say the budget is around $76 million. I'd love to see them fill out the rotation with Paul Byrd/Shane Reynolds and Ismael Valdez. But I doubt they can afford Byrd or Reynolds. I'm having more and more frightening visions of the Cardinals signing Chuck Finley.

"You know, I think Billy Beane learned a hard lesson from Walt with the Mac trade."

I think the Angels have too. Of course, I don't think Bill Stoneman was their GM when Jocketty executed The Great Jim Edmonds Robbery, was he?

2002-12-04T08:15:00.000-08:00

Well, If there's one LaRussa stereotype that I'll readily admit to him being guilty of, it's his love for McEwing/Paquette/Marrero/Cairo types who can play more than one position. That's why I think Tony doesn't play him for 450 ABs at catcher, because he's more "valuable" off the bench or starting at any number of positions. If Eli becomes the starting catcher for 120 games or more, then he'll be subject to the grueling demands of that position, and won't be available to spot start at 3b or LF. I think Walt/Tony should get themselves a cheap replacement for the utility man bench spot, and use the permanent marker to write Eli's name at catcher on the lineup card (providing, of course, that he's healthy enough - I can't stress enough how much respect for cancer survivors I have).

Finley wants a multiyear contract? I hope the Dodgers or Padres have fun....

Steve, what's your guess our salaries are up to at this point? I recall rumors that the budget was near $76 million. Of course, with all the deferring of money, it's getting tough to tell. I'm just wondering what we have left to spend on one or two more SPs.

The most recent Cub moves make it a good time to be a Redbird fan. Oh, sure, Karros/Grudz are going to "back up" Choi/Hill... Yeah, Dusty Baker's the kind of guy with just a TON of patience for young players. Between playing Karros and the high pitch counts that Dusty will give those young and fragile Cubbie arms, Cub mgmt has assured the title of "lovable losers" will continue well into the first decade of the new century.

You know, I think Billy Beane learned a hard lesson from Walt with the Mac trade. Pick on the weak/naive when trading. I agree with your brief assessment, despite the irrational exuberance that comes from the A's fans/stathead hardcores with every Beane move - this is basically a wash, with the A's picking up some marginal talent.

Finally, I was wondering your take on the Phils moves. I see them adding some bat with Thome, yes, but was scoring runs really their issue? I had Wolf/Duckworth/Padilla on my CNNSI team for various parts of the summer, and I really wonder if the problem was a lack of SLG % (which is essentially what they're picking up here). In my mind Bell/Thome is somewhat of a wash vs. Rolen/Giambi or even Rolen/Lee. So are the Phillies really doing what they need to in order to score more runs than the Braves? Is the solution a marginal amount of increase in OPS in the middle of the lineup, or should there be more focus on OBP at the 1 and 2 slots?

Furthermore, if the way to win the division is to score and prevent more runs than ATL, have they yet done what they need to allow fewer runs? Will signing Tommy G. accomplish that alone? I see headlines, but I'm not convinced that they will translate into results.

2002-12-03T23:51:00.000-08:00

First, I'd like to thank Sean Forman for linking our site on Primer.

Now, just some random scattershooting.

Now that Jim Thome is in the NL, ESPN's baseball page ran a poll asking who the best first baseman in the National League is: Thome, Jeff Bagwell, Richie Sexson, or Todd Helton. Where's Tino's name?! I'm outraged that he's not on the ballot!

Okay, seriously now. Chuck Finley wants a multiyear contract. Be afraid Cardinals fans. Be very afraid...

Exactly what does Tony La Russa have against Eli Marrero catching? Does he kick puppies or something? Get ready for a plethora of "La Russa is carrying 3 catchers for the 87th season in a row" comments, because they have signed Steve Torrealba to a major league contract. At least this is somewhat defensable. Marrero will be playing right field mostly until JD Drew is healthy. But couldn't they have signed a catcher who can at least do that mysterious thing they call "hit the baseball"?

The Cubs have attempted to address one of their glaring problems from 2002: their bullpen. But 10.65 million for Mike Remlinger is a little too much isn't it? Well, it might be considered a bargain if you look at Todd Van Poppel's contract.

Speaking of the Cubs, they managed to trade Todd Hundley! Unfortunately, they had to take on the dual offensive black holes known as Eric Karros and Mark Grudzielanek. Do you think that Hee Seop Choi and Bobby Hill want to demand a trade yet?

Hrmmmmmmm, Koch or Foulke? Foulke or Koch?

And finally, I'd like to wish Andy Benes good luck and happiness in his retirement. I know I had some hostile things to say about him back in April, but if I hadn't, I wouldn't be a Cardinals fan.

2002-12-03T13:07:00.000-08:00

PS - Thanks to Baseballprimer.com for the link! It's my fav. site.

2002-12-03T06:38:00.000-08:00

Oh yeah. I'd jump all over it. But I'd be aggressive with Ray Duhram. He puts up a pretty high OBP and would fit very nicely at the top of the lineup. Ortiz would be the guy, too. I'd rather have Rueter, but having 2 Woody's on the team would be confusing.

In the post dispatch recently was a particularly large article about Larry Walker. STL was one of the few places Larry said he wanted to stay. Bernie (the author) explained why it would be stupid to trade Drew for Walker, and to an extent, even Eli straight up considering age and contract factors. Now depending on how much contract COL would eat, and considering that Eli will never play where he's best under LaRussa, catcher, I'd certainly entertain the idea. But then again, You'd have to bench Tino to fit him, and that's something Tony would never do.

2002-12-02T21:05:00.000-08:00

Interesting trade rumor I read over on Fred's board: Fernando Vina for Russ Ortiz.

If I was Walt Jocketty, I think that this is something I would strongly consider (Ortiz's health permitting). The Cardinals need the arm for the rotation, and I don't think they could get more for Vina in the future. Yes, I like Vina, but I think this is something that would make the team better.

Miguel Cairo could take over second base as a stopgap until the Cardinals can either bring a kid up from the minors (unlikely), trade for another second baseman, or sign a free agent second baseman. So, second base would be covered.

Since Vina was the leadoff hitter, I guess the Cardinals would have to find another one. That's not difficult. All they have to do is look at shortstop and they have one. Or, they could be rather creative and have Marrero lead off the first half of the season when he's playing right field. I think I'd rather have Renteria lead off though.

What do you think Alex? Would you pull the trigger on this one?

2002-12-01T07:20:00.000-08:00

I should have been specific. Wishful thinking on the Giants part. heh.

2002-11-30T23:00:00.000-08:00

Today's Post Dispatch had a blurb calling the Ortiz/Drew rumors "wishful thinking".

Wishful thinking? Out of everybody in the Cardinals' front office, who in their right mind would wish to trade Drew for Ortiz or Hernandez? I guess the same people who wished for Tino Martinez.

In your reasoning behind JD Drew moving to first base, you touched on the reason why I think he won't be moving to first base: his arm. Yes, he does have problems with his knee(s). But I want to see how his knee recovers after his surgery before I make any predictions regarding him changing positions

2002-11-30T08:44:00.000-08:00

Today's Post Dispatch had a blurb calling the Ortiz/Drew rumors "wishful thinking".

2002-11-30T04:54:00.000-08:00

RE: pitching. I'm just going to have to step out and hope those are well-wishing Giant rumors.

RE: Tino, I think what they do with Vina next year will be the first test. If Vina puts up more OBP numbers like his 2002 campaign, then all the scrappiness in the world doesn't warrant another starting position. If Vina's OBP hovers in the low .3's and STL resigns him, I think that'll be a good indicator of what will happen to Tino.

On the other hand, with more decline in #'s, I wouldn't put it past TLR to bench Tino in the last year of his contract.

RE: 1b post-Tino, While on the basis of leather/arm alone, Drew belongs in the OF and Albert at 1b, I think Drew's knees will necessitate a move to 1b in 2-3 years.

2002-11-29T18:59:00.000-08:00

I think that trading Drew for either Ortiz or Hernandez (especially Hernandez) would be a mistake. It's much easier, and makes more sense, to sign a pitcher to a low-dollar contract that will give you the same, if not better, performance than Hernandez. I think it would be a more defensable move if Drew was traded for Ortiz, but even that wouldn't be very smart.

The Cardinals need to realize that there's pitching out there that won't cost as much as Ortiz will, both in terms of cash and players. I think I saw that Ortiz will be making 5.3 million in 2003. I KNOW the Cardinals can get a Shane Reynolds or a Steve Trachsel at less than that. The same with Jamey Wright. Paul Byrd might be more expensive those three (definitely more than Ismael Valdez). But do they really want to trade a potential big bat for what could possibly be only 1 year of pitching service?

I certainly hope not. Because as I said in a previous post, I think that once his knee is 100%, JD Drew is going to do something BIG. One year of Russ Ortiz or Livan Hernandez won't make up for what I think Drew is going to do.

As for JD moving to first, I think that depends. The Cardinals were dumb enough to sign Tino once, don't you think it's possible that they'll do it again? Even if they don't, I think Albert Pujols is a better candidate for taking over first base than Drew is.

2002-11-28T17:32:00.000-08:00

From CBS Sportsline Rumor Mill:

" The St. Louis Post-Dispatch reported the Cardinals were continued to ponder several trade possibilities, one involving Giants pitchers Livan Hernandez or Russ Ortiz, as well as weighing free agents Shawn Estes and Paul Byrd. The likelihood of pursuing a marquee free agent pitcher, such as Tom Glavine or Greg Maddux, apparently was shelved with Williams' signing."

I have a very, very uneasy feeling about this. Trading Drew or even Eli for Livan or Ortiz is SUCH a bad idea. Please, please, please Walt sign Byrd, Valdez, or Trachsel instead. There's nothing Ortiz or Livan (esp. Livan) can offer that a mid-cost free agent signing can't solve, we won't be saving any $$ by trading Drew, and with his injuries, we should get the next 4-6 years of J.D. for less than market.

I also predict that JD will take over 1b in 2 years.

2002-11-26T22:03:00.000-08:00

I agree that offering Thome a 6 year contract isn't very smart. And if the Phillies do sign both Thome and Glavine, I see two possible results, one much more likely than the other.

First, the Phillies actually DO something. By that, I mean earn the right to play in October and make a little bit of noise there, possibly going to the NLCS. I can somewhat see this happening, but I don't think this scenario is as likely as what I think will really happen.

If the new and improved Phillies with Glavine, Bell, and Thome continue to play like, well, the Phillies, then it's real simple. Ed Wade and ownership can easily say, "See? We tried spending money, and it didn't work. So why should we continue to do so? We're going to cut back on the payroll, and go back to being a "small market" team and collect the revenue sharing money that's rightfully ours."

Now, nevermind that the money they spent wasn't spent wisely. That's never the problem in the eyes of baseball owners. So really, which one of those is really more likely to happen?

Give me the latter scenario.

2002-11-26T19:48:00.000-08:00

Good Lord of the Dance!

Ed Wade has gone completely goofy and is offering Thome 6 years now.

While I have a degree in finance and understand the concept of net present value, Thome is older than I by about 6 days, and will be near 39 when this deal is done. I hope that the Phils land Thome and Glavine - with this mindset they go from good young team with the possibility of building a long term contender, to wanting to win in the next two years, because somewhere near year 3 of this master plan, Glavine and Bell will be worthless, and Thome will have gone from the guy protecting Burrell and Abreu to being the guy Burrell and Utley (OK probably not Utley) are protecting. You know, in the long term, the Phils would have been better off signing Trachsel/Valdez, trading Duckworth for Blalock, and signing Frank Thomas or Fred McGriff for 2 or 3 years for less than half of what they're floating in front of Thome. Also interesting are Thome's home/road splits (from someone on the Primer thread).... Wonder how the new park in Philly will play.

2002-11-26T06:03:00.000-08:00

I typed Estes, and actually meant Trachsel. Doesn't matter, though. If they want to think that we have one starting position left to fill, fine, but Woodard signed with the Bosox, we won't have a Benes to kick around anymore, and I can't imagine that we'll get 400 IP out of Woody and Garrett.

I'd like to see Reynolds and Wright signed, with Garrett taking it slow or Jason putting in a few IP in Memphis.

About the Woody signing, $7 mill is a bunch. But....

1.) It won't seem like much if we do get 400 IP over the next 2 years that are equivelant to the last 120 or so (esp when you see the $ other SPs sign for - if you think Glavine's going to be bad, watch out for Jimmy Haynes if, say, the Mets or someone stuipid picks him up).
2.) You're right - he's signed essentially for the rest of his useful career. I hate to talk about players and people as if they're "human resources", but at least we're not paying him past 38 unless we really want to.

Makes me wonder how serious the 'Stros were, or Woody's complaining.

Not related, but my guess is Thome is a Phillie. 15 million for 5 years from the Phils vs. 10 million for 5 years from CLE? He's supposed to be a nice guy and all, but $25 million is $25 million.

Funny that no one on Primer picked up on Bell's career OPS and age vs. Placido. No one even ranked him among MLB 3b in OPS. There were even posts listing the Phils lineup (with Thome) and claiming it was the best in the NL (let's count proven 1.+ OPS producers in the PHIL lineup vs. the STL lineup, shall we).

Not that Ed Wade's like a genius, but:

1.) Bill Mueller
2.) Keep Placido at 3b
3.) Take Tatis off the hands of the Expos at $4 million and have MLB eat $2million
4.) Make a trade of young stud pitcher (Duckworth?) for young stud 3b with Texas (Blalock?), replace young pitcher with somewhat cheap veteran

All of these are better options IMHO than Bell. But he's a proven winner, you know....

As frustrated as I can be with Tino, or thinking that Woody's getting between $800k and $1.2 mill more than he should, at least Walt doesn't do too many desparation signings with our payroll.

2002-11-25T22:07:00.000-08:00

Sorry for the lack of participation the last couple of days. Work is starting to get more hectic with Christmas coming up. And it's only gonna get worse. At least I'll get my Mac at a discount!

Now, I think what you're saying about Miguel Tejada, and more specifically, Latins who age helping small market clubs really makes sense. I never thought about in that way before, but now that I have, it seems that what you say is pretty spot on. I'm just wondering though; Albert Pujols...

I'm glad to see that the Cardinals were at least able to get SOME pitcher signed. And I'm glad to see it was a pitcher that has been consistently good (when he's been healthy) in his time with the team. But did the Cardinals overpay for Woody Williams? Well, yeah they did. Teams usually do overpay for pitching, especially the better the pitching gets. But while they might have overpaid for Williams, I take GREAT solace in knowing that they didn't throw a bunch of years at him. For a pitcher the age of Woody Williams, I think it's better to be on the hook for 2 years and 14.9 million than it is to be locked in at 4 years and 28 million (see Tom Glavine's contract for details when he signs it).

Now that they have a front three, I'm wondering what they're going to do about the rest of the starting rotation (I'm worried about the bullpen too, but that's for another time). I'm not surprised to see that Andy Benes is retiring. I've always liked him (well, I wasn't too fond of him back in April), and I'm a little sad to see that he won't be pitching anymore. But, I am glad to know that he was able to retire after posting some very good numbers at the end of the season, instead of the horrible numbers he put up in April.

I guess they're going to move Stephenson back into the rotation. I'm not too thrilled with that, but for now, what else can they do? Well, they CAN sign a Shane Reynolds, or a Paul Byrd, or an Ismael Valdez, or like you said, a Shawn Estes. Heck, why not sign Jamey Wright? But no, they'll sign Chuck Finley and we'll get to read Jeff Gordon and Bernie Miklasz write about their visions of grandeur in regards to the starting rotation, which will consist of: Morris, Williams, Finley, Simontacchi, and Stephenson.

Great. I hope the Cardinals at least have Travis Smith under contract.

2002-11-25T18:00:00.000-08:00

Andy Benes is claiming he's done.

That's too bad, I thought he could be a useful 5th starter. I'm guessing that the fact that he's not coming back would mean that we have plans beyond Morris, Woody, Stephenson, and Simontacchi. At least I hope we have plans beyond that, considering how many games those #2 and 3 starters have pitched in the last 3-4 years....

2002-11-25T13:15:00.000-08:00

Woody Stays . Too Much Money? Estes anyone?

2002-11-24T12:59:00.000-08:00

The Reds are not allowed to breach IIRC $45-47. I've seen $50 mill numbers floated around what Omar expects to work with for the Expos (BTW - What will the scoreboard say, MTL still? What a joke).

So the Reds, with a new park austensibly only a pitching staff away from contention, can't be competitive drawing 20k- 30k....

I'd be fuming if I were a CIN fan.

Tejada gains a few years. It occurs to me that having latin players who "age" actually helps small market clubs. To put it this way, if you have, say, Felipe Javier from the Dominican and sign him at "18". He's in the bigs 4 years later at "22". He starts to peak 2 years later at "24" and is under his min. contact with the small market team until "26". At "27" he hits his free agency period and leaves.

Now if he's 2 years older than advertised, he's past his statistical peak. These days, with marquee players, that's less and less of an issue, but if you can sign the guy early until he's fictionally "30" and really 32, it's significant.

2002-11-24T11:32:00.000-08:00

So it's possible that having to give up Vina is why Mike Hampton isn't a Cardinal today, huh? I'm not surprised, if that was the case, that the Cardinals said no. I think if they had traded Vina, the Cardinals would have felt a severe backlash from the media and from 99% of the fans. Also, the team probably feels that Vina adds to the team chemistry, and they don't want to disrupt that.

First, I know there's a such thing as "team chemistry", but since there's no way to quantify it, I'm not going to comment any further on it. Second, as you said, Vina is replacable. And really, although it would be nice to replace him with Ray Durham, I think Miguel Cairo would serve as an adequate stopgap until 2004 when the Cardinals either develop their own second baseman, or trade for a better long-term solution. Yes, Cairo's career OBP is lower than Vina's, but I've never seen anything that says the Cardinals must use their second baseman as their leadoff hitter.

The only problem having Miguel Cairo as the everyday second baseman, with Marrero more than likely spending most of his time in right field the first half of 2003, is that Tony La Russa no longer has the mandatory 2 utility players on his roster. That by itself could lead to some very dangerous, and very dumb contract signings in the near future. So it's possible that the Cardinals not trading Vina to get Hampton is a blessing in disguise.

But, I think I would have pulled the trigger on it

Re: Maddux. I've read several times that the Cardinals have slight interest in Maddux. If it's true, I have to wonder why. Yeah, he's been a great pitcher for a long time. But he's 37 years old, and with the contract he wants, you're pretty much guaranteeing yourself that you'll have him when he's declined past the stage of usefullness. But, as you stated, that's not stopping them from looking at Chuck Finley.

Re: the Expos. I feel sorry for Expos fans. And people wonder why nobody goes to their games. It's not because the people of Montreal don't like baseball. It's because they have no desire to support the ownership of the team. I can't really say that I blame them.

And I did NOT know that little tidbit of info you shared about the Reds. I thought that shiny new stadiums were supposed to increase revenues, and thus, allow for higher payrolls? Oh yeah. I forgot that the team has to have an owner who is willing to spend a little bit of money.

GOD I HATE THE OWNERS.

2002-11-24T07:53:00.000-08:00

Steve,

I was going to comment on this myself. Here's something else you'll hate - the Post Dispatch doesn't go into detail Friday, but suggests the reason we don't have Mike Hampton is because the Fish asked for Vina. Vina, who is in the last year of his contract and is in decline concerning leadoff ability. Vina... Never mind he's easily replacable with any number of folks (Ray Durham), that we need pitching, esp. LHSP....

Speaking of pitching, same article says that Boras is trying to "peddle" Maddux on the Redbirds. They then suggest that a 5 year contract for a 37 year old is silly (oh, wait, but signing Chuck Finley to another year is a good idea...).

Finally, Rick Ankiel's arm is all better! I'm so happy to hear that there's no more pain and he's resumed throwing. /end sarcasm/

Did you know that next year the Expos might have a larger salary allowance than the Reds? More on the implications of that and lessons learned from the Indians fall from grace in my next article. Also, Miguel Tejada is older than expected....

2002-11-23T23:51:00.000-08:00

I don't know about you Alex, but I REALLY hate the business of baseball. It bothers me to no end that teams are trading players for the purpose of reducing payroll instead of improving. I know it's something that owners have had coming to them (and the ridiculous CBA isn't helping matters any), but that's really no consolation. And unfortunately, I don't think it's something that will change anytime soon.

But, speaking of trades, Peter Gammons floated the following trade rumor: JD Drew for Russ Ortiz. Now, you and I both know that none of the rumors that Gammons has ever written about have ever come true ("An unidentified source has told me that the Red Sox are close to acquiring Mike Hampton in a deal that revolves around Shea Hillenbrand."). So, while the Drew-for-Ortiz rumor really shouldn't be taken seriously, let's consider it for a minute.

First, we both know that the Cardinals are in dire need of some arms for the starting rotation. If the Cardinals acquired Ortiz, that would (right now) give them a front three of Morris, Ortiz, and Simontacchi. If the Cardinals sign Williams, then Simontacchi would move into the 4th starter spot, with Williams taking his spot higher up in the rotation. I think that Morris, Ortiz, and Williams would form a pretty strong foundation for a starting rotation. So, that would leave, for now, a rotation of Morris, Ortiz, Williams, Simontacchi, and Stephenson. It could use some improvement (I have ideas about that), but it's not bad.

Now, who plays right field? Well, the likely candidate is Eli Marrero. Since it's apparently against Tony La Russa's religion to make Marrero his regular catcher, it seems only logical that Marrero would get his at bats while in right field. The only problem is, that while Marrero is obviously a better hitter than Mike Matheny (not too tough to achieve), his bat isn't good enough for a corner outfielder. I guess that it wouldn't be too big a problem when you have Albert Pujols and Jim Edmonds as your other outfielders. I guess we'll find out how well it works out since JD Drew won't play very much during the first half of next season anyway.*

So, if you're Walt Jocketty, what do you do? If I'm made GM of the Cardinals for a day, I don't trade JD Drew for Russ Ortiz. Although he won't be able to play much, if at all, during the first half of 2003, I think Drew is going to do something BIG once his knee is fully recovered. Instead, I'd concentrate on signing either Shane Reynolds or Paul Byrd, and then signing Ismael Valdez. That's assuming that Wood Williams gets signed. Morris, Williams, Reynolds/Byrd, Valdez, and Simontacchi makes for a pretty good starting rotation.

Now, let's get back to reality. I look for the Cardinals 2003 opening day rotation to consist of Morris, Williams, Finley, Simontacchi, and Stephenson. I don't know about you, but I like my proposed rotation a lot more than the rotation that is more likely to be put together.

* I know that this trade analysis is simplistic and doesn't consider any statistics, but I'm tired and didn't feel like going into more depth right now.

2002-11-21T17:58:00.000-08:00

I wouldn't necessarily mind if the Cardinals wanted to try to make some kind of trade for Neagle, as long as Colorado agreed to eat a large portion of the remainder of his contract. The Cardinals need arms for the starting rotation, and though Neagle isn't an ace by any stretch of the imagination, he would at least be adequate (I think) in an Ismael Valdez kind of way.

In regards to Orosco; do you really think the Cardinals would give him another shot, after their previous experiment with him failed miserably? I know that he is a lefty, which gives La Russa another arm for his Parade of 1,000 Nightly Relievers (TM). He's also (much) older than 35, which makes him all the more attractive to La Russa and Jocketty. Hrmmmmm. You're right. Orosco will be pitching in St. Louis for the good guys when next September rolls around. Ugh...

I read the post you're referring to on Baseball Primer that talked about the new Cardinals broadcaster being the worst broadcaster in Giants history. I'm afraid I'm going to have to take that with quite a few grains of salt. For all we know, the person who posted that could think that Vin Scully sucks, and that Chip Carey and Joe Carter form the greatest broadcasting team in the history of the game (I mentioned Chip Carey, Joe Carter, and greatest in the same sentence. Please kill me now). I mean, you and I have disagreed on who is good and who isn't (or did we disagree on who we like and dislike?).

As for your trip to St. Louis, enjoy your stay. I think I'm good on the memorabilia for now. When it comes to that stuff, I have expensive taste.

2002-11-21T04:34:00.000-08:00

I think the Rockies/D-Backs trade is best for everyone involved with the exception of Prinz (after all, what pitcher in their right mind would want to go to Colorado). But you're right, Durazo doesn't have a position. Which means he'll end up in ATL, BOS, CLE, etc.... Likely for much less than his value. How about trading Tino to CLE and then getting Durazo for a bucket of balls? Better yet, how about getting Durazo and Neagle in the same deal? I don't have any delusions that Neagle is near the pitcher he was in PIT or ATL, but he'd continue the legacy of previously good pitcher making one last run into double digit wins and a league average ERA (Hentgen, Hermanson, Finley, Stottlemeyer....).

I still need to study the stadium deal. I haven't seen too much real analysis on it.

The only bad part about the Orosco deal is the fact that if Fassero re-signs and falters, we'll end up with Orosco wearing the Birds and Bats come July 31.

If you read Stltoday.com, there's all sorts of praise for the new broadcaster. But someone on Baseball Primer said that it was generally accepted that when Wayne was in SF he was the worst announcer in Giants history. This is bad news for you and I as KMOX via MLB.Com is about the only way we can catch games in real time.

I'll be in St. Louis for the holidays, want me to pick you up any memorabilia?

2002-11-19T22:29:00.000-08:00

Interesting stuff from the baseball world has been relatively scarce the last couple of days (and work has kept me busy). But, I've found a couple of things that I think are worth noting.

First, Jesse Orosco will be employed next season by the San Diego Padres at the age of 46. Now, don't get me wrong; I'm happy for the guy (I'm happy for anybody who's lucky enough to be called a major league baseball player). But, am I the only one thinking that $800,000 is a ridiculous amount of money to pay to get 1 hitter out every 3 or 4 games (if that much)? I know that the only reason why the Padres showed any interest in him at all is because he's left handed. But is it really THAT hard to find an adequate left handed reliever to get more than 1 hitter out per appearance for less than Orosco's 2003 salary?

Second, if the players approve it, the Rockies will be trading Larry Walker to the Diamondbacks for Matt Williams, Erubiel Durazo, Bret Prinz, and David Dellucci. I'm not sure what to make of this potential trade. The Snakes are getting a good (when healthy), possibly great (consider Coors Field) hitter in Larry Walker, and have the luxury of sending the injury known as Matt Williams out of town. At the same time though, they're shipping off a pretty good relief pitcher in Prinz, and a pretty good bat off the bench in Dellucci. Not to mention they're getting rid of Durazo who can flat out rake. Which I would be all for if he was going to a team who needed him. So, instead of not getting playing time because he kicked the owner's dog or slept with the manager's daughter, he won't get playing time because there's nowhere on the field to play him. He's blocked at first by Helton. He's blocked at third by Williams. And he doesn't want to play the outfield. So, if this trade does happen, I wouldn't be surprised if Durazo was traded shortly afterward.

Think the Cardinals could interest the Rockies in Tino? He just oozes Veteran Presence (TM), and he knows how to win (or so I've heard...). Besides, the Rocks already have 2 first basemen they can't really use as they should be used, so why not pick up another? Oh, and in case you can't tell, yes, I'm bitter.

2002-11-17T20:33:00.000-08:00

From Peter Gammons:

Rick Ankiel has been working hard this offseason at the Cardinals' facility in Jupiter, Fla., but is still experiencing pain in his throwing elbow and may have to go back to Dr. Andrews in Birmingham for an examination.

I realize that Ankiel is, and should be, a backburner project right now. But why, why, WHY isn't he getting his elbow taken care of? While I feel that his time off has been good for him, trying to work through elbow pain just isn't smart. He should just have the TJS now and get it over with. There's really no reason to be scared of it. The sooner he gets it taken care of, the sooner he can really start trying to work his way back.

The way that this is being put off reminds me a lot of JD Drew putting off his knee surgery for entirely too long.

2002-11-17T09:22:00.000-08:00

You've pretty much summed up my feelings on this deal already:

1) Hampton for 35.5 million for the rest of his contract is a steal.

2) I hate the Braves even more than I did before.

3) Why didn't the Cardinals at least seriously consider making a move like this? I mean, knowing what the Braves gave up, the Cardinals could have given the Marlins a dozen bats and a bucket of batting practice balls, and Hampton would be a Cardinal right now.

4) Jeff Loria isn't a real owner.

I disagree with you though when you say you think they'll sign a real corner man. This is a team that inexplicably signed Vinny Castilla to a 2 year, high dollar contract (high dollar for a washed up third baseman that is) and continues to give Keith Lockhart regular playing time over a guy who can actually hit (Marcus Giles). Yes, they would be far better off in reacquiring Brian Jordan and moving Chipper back to third. But the Braves haven't demonstrated that they know what sunk costs are (at least not that I can remember), so they'll be keeping Castilla.

Again, I'm pretty upset at this. The Cardinals had a chance to improve their starting rotation at a cheap cost, and they didn't do it. I guess Hampton isn't close enough to 40 for the Cardinals to have shown any real interest in.